Bitcoin (BTC), the original cryptocurrency, is facing an important moment as we approach the end of the year. After showing a small recovery earlier this week, Bitcoin is still very close to a key price level that has historically caused big drops during past market cycles.
Right now, Bitcoin’s price is about $86,700, with $35 billion traded in the past 24 hours. The price has dropped 1% today and is down 4% for the week. On November 21, Bitcoin reached a low of $80,500. Since then, it has been moving between $84,000 and $90,000 without big changes.
Bitcoin and the 100-Week SMA: Why It’s Important
Bitcoin’s current price is sitting at the 100-week simple moving average (SMA). This level is important because it has historically marked the beginning of major market declines over the past 10 years. If you’re unfamiliar, a simple moving average (SMA) calculates the average price of an asset over a certain period. This helps traders see long-term price trends. You can learn more about SMA here.
Analyst Chain Mind explained that whenever Bitcoin’s price drops below this 100-week SMA level, history shows that big price cuts between 35% and 55% often follow. For example, in 2022, when Bitcoin closed below this level, its price dropped over 57% afterward.
Having already declined 31% from its recent peak of $126,000, analysts think Bitcoin could drop even further if it closes below this important SMA level. Some project that the price might fall to a range of $35,000-$50,000.
Further signs of trouble are being seen in the flattening slope of the moving average. This means Bitcoin’s long-term price momentum is slowing down, which worries traders. Everyone is now watching the weekly closing price to see if Bitcoin can stay above the 100-week SMA or if it will continue falling.
Short-Term Trends to Watch
In the short term, Bitcoin’s price is trying to rise above the 20-day moving average for the first time after spending 78 days below it. A moving average like this one is helpful for tracking shorter, day-to-day price trends. If the price can stay above this level over the next few days, it could signal a change in Bitcoin’s pattern.
Well-known trader Michaël van de Poppe mentioned this could be a positive sign but cautions traders to wait for confirmation. In the past, Bitcoin has briefly moved above the 20-day moving average during corrections, only to fall again. So the trend shift is not guaranteed.
What Are Whales Doing?
Another thing that traders are keeping an eye on is Bitcoin activity from whales. Whales are investors who hold large amounts of cryptocurrency. Analyst CW noted that whales at the trading platform Bitfinex seem to be making profits from their long positions on Bitcoin, hinting that the early stages of a market recovery could begin. Long positions mean bets that the price will go up.
However, not everyone agrees this is a sign of a bull market (or rising prices). Another analyst, Ali Martinez, suggested this might be a “dead cat bounce.” A dead cat bounce is when an asset starts to recover a little but ends up falling again after that. You can read more about this term here.
Martinez explained that Bitcoin might still drop further before stabilizing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure that shows whether an asset is overbought or oversold, is still below 50, which means Bitcoin’s momentum is not strong right now. To learn about RSI, visit this page.
Will 2025 End on a Positive Note?
When we look back, Bitcoin started 2025 priced at $93,400. It has since fallen about 5% for the year. This decline is notable because, as analyst Lark Davis pointed out, Bitcoin has never closed a post-halving year with a yearly loss.
For reference, a Bitcoin halving is an event that generally happens every four years. During a halving, the rewards for mining Bitcoin get cut in half, which reduces how much new Bitcoin can enter circulation. You can read more details about Bitcoin halving here.
With just three days left before 2025 ends, traders are closely watching what happens to Bitcoin’s price. Will it stay at these levels or surprise everyone with sudden movements?