Vitalik Buterin is a well-known computer programmer who helped create a system called Ethereum. He earned about $70,000 last year by trading on a website called Polymarket. He started with about $440,000 to invest. He explains that this profit came from a simple idea he calls anti-insanity mode. In plain words, he tries to find bets on markets that seem extremely irrational and then bets against those unlikely outcomes.
To understand this story, it helps to know what Polymarket is and what a prediction market does. Polymarket is an American online platform where people can place bets on future events using digital money. In simple terms, a bet is like paying a small stake on what you think will happen in the future. A prediction market is a place where many people share their guesses by buying and selling these bets. The price of a bet reflects what most people think about the chance of an event happening.
Buterin explains that many people who participate on Polymarket lose money. They can get carried away by fear or excitement and buy bets that seem very popular at the moment. Buterin looks for situations where people’s feelings seem far from reality. For example, he mentioned bets about whether Donald Trump could win the Nobel Peace Prize or bets made during times of strong fear that the U.S. dollar would crash to zero within a year. In these cases, he tries to bet against the idea that such extreme events will happen.
When markets move in a way that many people think is extreme or unlikely, these bets can create opportunities for a disciplined trader who is willing to take the opposite view. Buterin says that he usually profits when the common expectation is wrong. He emphasizes that his strategy is not about winning every bet, but about finding the right moments to bet against overly optimistic or overly pessimistic guesses.
Buterin mainly focuses on bets in two areas: politics and technology. He notes that these areas often trigger strong feelings and big expectations. In politics, people care a lot about who wins and what that could mean for the country. In technology, there are fast changes and big promises that can make people excited or worried. These emotional reactions can create chances to find bets that are underpriced or overpriced from a rational point of view.
Another idea he shares is that bets driven by irrational predictions tend to offer clearer chances for careful traders. If most people believe something impossible will happen, a careful bettor can look for signs that it will not happen and place bets against that popular belief. This is a core part of his approach on the platform.
Buterin has not always kept his bets to Polymarket. During the 2020 United States presidential election cycle, he says he made about $58,000 from election-related bets. He was not a very frequent user of Polymarket at that time, but he still earned money from these bets. This example shows that his approach has worked in the past, not only in recent years.
Beyond his personal wins, Buterin has spoken publicly about prediction markets as a useful tool for finding the truth through collective thinking. He called them what some people call social epistemic technologies. In simple language, this means these markets encourage many people to participate and share information, rather than relying on a few experts or leaders. When many people share their knowledge in a market, it can help the group come closer to the real answer about what will happen in the future.
Now, let’s look at some recent numbers about Polymarket and its competition. A research group called Messari looked at different prediction markets and how much people are betting on them. They found that Polymarket no longer dominates this space as much as it used to. On June 1, 2025, Polymarket held the largest share of open interest in prediction markets, which means it had the most money still tied up in bets that had not yet settled. That share was 57% of the total open interest on the market they studied.
At the end of that year, December 31, leadership shifted. Kalshi, another prediction market platform, had grown to hold about 42% of open interest, with $355.9 million in bets still active. This shows that competition in prediction markets is growing, and other platforms are gaining ground even as Polymarket stays active. Kalshi operates in a similar space, letting people bet on future events, including political events, and has faced its own regulatory questions along the way.
In that same period, Polymarket’s share was about 41%, while a platform called Opinion held about 15%. Even with more competition, Polymarket remains active in many kinds of bets. The researchers found that in December 2025, the total trading volume across three major areas—sports, politics, and cryptocurrencies—was more than $1.2 billion in each area. This shows that multiple markets are driving activity, not just one single topic.
One interesting area for Polymarket is the category called culture, which grew very fast. From June to December, the monthly trading volume in culture rose by 687% and reached about $264.3 million. That means more bets were placed on culture-related events in a short time. Still, even with large totals, a small group of wallets—digital accounts that hold funds—made up the majority of trading. In other words, a few accounts carried most of the activity on the platform during that period.
So what are some of the key ideas behind all this activity? A prediction market like Polymarket lets people use bets to express likely outcomes. The prices of bets reflect what the crowd thinks is possible. When many people believe a certain outcome is very likely, the price on that bet goes higher. If the outcome turns out differently, the people who made bets against that outcome can win. This is how markets gather information from many people who have different views and knowledge.
For those who are new to this topic, it might help to know a few important terms in simple words. A prediction market is an open market that uses money bets to predict future events, and the price of a bet shows how likely people think that event will happen. Buterin’s approach—betting against irrational markets—means looking for bets where the crowd seems to be wrong about what will happen. He then places bets that the unlikely outcome will not occur, hoping to earn a profit when the crowd’s view corrects itself over time.
To help readers understand the people involved, here are a few quick explanations of key names you might hear in this story. Vitalik Buterin is a co-founder of the Ethereum project. He is later described as a programmer and philanthropist who has helped create and support decentralized technologies. For more about him, you can read his profile on Wikipedia. Vitalik Buterin
Polymarket is a platform where people can place bets on future events. It launched in 2020 and uses cryptocurrency to enable betting on political, scientific, economic, and cultural events. Polymarket
A prediction market is a place where people can buy and sell contracts based on the probability of events. The prices change as people buy more bets and as new information becomes available. This helps create a market-based forecast that many people contribute to. Prediction market
Ethereum is the blockchain technology behind Polymarket’s system and many other projects. It is a decentralized system that runs programs called smart contracts. The Ethereum network has its own cryptocurrency called Ether. Ethereum
Kalshi is another prediction market platform in the United States. It focuses on a wide range of events, including politics, and has faced its own regulatory questions as it grows. Kalshi
In summary, Vitalik Buterin used a strategy that bets against markets he sees as extremely irrational. He earned about $70,000 in one year by starting with around $440,000 and placing careful bets in markets mainly about politics and technology. He has shown that prediction markets can offer profitable opportunities when people’s beliefs swing too far in one direction or another. At the same time, the landscape for prediction markets is changing as new platforms grow and more capital flows into different kinds of bets. For readers who want to learn more, you can explore the terms above through the linked Wikipedia pages, which provide beginner-friendly explanations and historical context. This story comes from CryptoPotato, reporting on these developments in the world of crypto markets and prediction platforms.