XRP, the digital coin used on the XRP Ledger, has slipped about 4% since the start of 2026. It trades around $1.90 on major cryptocurrency markets. At the same time, data that tracks activity on the blockchain shows more very large holders are starting to buy more XRP. This is what on-chain data means: information that is publicly recorded about transactions and wallets on the blockchain. In this case, the XRP Ledger is the network where XRP runs. It is like a public notebook that records every transfer of XRP and other types of value on its system.
People watching the market see a gap between what the price does and how many big wallets are growing. This gap creates a cautious but important moment for XRP. Investors are weighing signs of people buying more XRP (accumulation) against the short-term price trends, which have not shown a strong move up or down yet.
Whale Wallets Rise as Price Stays Below a Long-Term Guideline
On January 29, the analytics firm Santiment reported something notable: XRP added a net 42 wallets that hold at least one million XRP since the start of 2026. This is the first time such a rise in “millionaire” wallets has been seen since September 2025. In plain words, several very large holders are increasing their XRP positions this year. The price has fallen only modestly during the same period, down about 4%. This pattern suggests accumulation—more buying by big holders—rather than selling by them.
As this was written, XRP was around $1.88. That means it had fallen about 2% in the last 24 hours and about 4% in the last seven days, according to CoinGecko. Looking at the past month, XRP is a little higher, roughly up 2%, but it is still roughly 40% lower than where it stood a year ago.
Technical data from Arab Chain adds more details. It shows XRP trading around 25% below its 200-day moving average. A moving average is a simple way to see the general price direction by averaging prices over a long period. The 200-day moving average for XRP is near $2.50. This means the current price is below a level that traders often use to judge long-term trends.
Other numbers suggest caution. The 30-day Sharpe Ratio is close to zero. The Sharpe Ratio is a way to measure how much extra return an investment gives you for taking extra risk, compared with a risk-free option (like a government bond). When the ratio is near zero, it means the returns do not justify the amount of risk right now. In addition, some recent momentum indicators point to consolidation—prices moving sideways in a tight range rather than making a strong move up or down.
Market Watchers Caution Against Big Price Targets
Market watchers such as XrpArthur have warned against optimistic price targets that sometimes float around social media. They argue that projections like $13 to $30 per XRP ignore real-world conditions. Important factors include the overall economy, how much liquidity (money moving around in markets) is available, what the U.S. Federal Reserve is doing with interest rates, how much Bitcoin dominates the market, and how XRP is actually used on the XRP Ledger.
What Could Shape XRP in 2026
Crypto investment firm 21Shares released a thoughtful view of XRP’s path in 2026. They gave three possible price scenarios. Their base-case (most likely) price is about $2.45. A bull case—where the price could do better—around $2.70. A bear case (lower) around $1.60. These ideas rely a lot on two big events: regulatory clarity and real-world use of XRP and related products.
The report notes that the key driver is clarity from regulators after the August 2025 settlement of a long-running case between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs. Once the case was resolved, U.S. institutions and regulated funds could again access XRP-related products more easily, which could attract more traditional investors into XRP markets.
21Shares also highlights U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a potential strong source of demand. An ETF is a type of investment that trades like a stock but tracks the price of an asset or a group of assets. In their first month, these XRP ETFs gathered more than $1.3 billion in assets under management. This is a sign of growing interest from professional and institutional buyers. Still, 21Shares warned that for XRP to push higher, inflows would need to continue, there must be more tokenization activity (turning real-world assets into digital tokens), and there needs to be adoption of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin (a type of digital dollar designed to stay close to a fixed value).
Right now, many analysts see XRP moving in a narrow range, mostly between $1.80 and $2.00. They are watching to see if XRP can reclaim the $2.00 level, which has acted as a resistance point in past trading sessions. In the end, the current trend shows more big-buying by large holders even as the broader market remains hesitant. This combination leaves XRP in a kind of holding pattern as 2026 moves forward.
Why This Matters for Investors
The growing number of very large XRP holders during a time when the price has not yet surged raises questions about the future. If these big holders continue to accumulate, it could indicate that they expect the price to rise later. On the other hand, because the price is still near a long-term resistance level (the 200-day moving average) and key momentum signs are mixed, a strong and immediate breakout remains uncertain. This is exactly the kind of moment investors call a “consolidation phase.” It is not a guarantee of a price spike, but it is a sign of possible change ahead if new forces support buying power or improve the environment for XRP overall.
In summary, XRP’s price has not kept pace with the growth in large wallet holdings so far in 2026. This divergence is watched closely by traders because it can reveal whether the market is gathering strength for a bigger move or simply continuing to drift in a narrow range. For now, XRP remains in a careful balancing act between new wealth moving into the network and broader market conditions that still make many traders cautious.
Glossary: Simple explanations of key terms
- XRP Ledger: The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is the network that runs XRP and can handle other kinds of tokens. It is like a public book that records every transaction. XRP Ledger.
- Ripple Labs: A U.S. company that originally built the XRP network and offers blockchain products. It was started in 2012 and has gone through name changes. Ripple Labs.
- 21Shares: A company from Switzerland that creates cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs). 21Shares.
- Sharpe ratio: A measure used in investing to show how much extra return you get for taking extra risk. It compares the investment’s return to a risk-free return, adjusted for how much the investment fluctuates. Sharpe ratio.
- SEC v. Ripple Labs, Inc.: A legal case in the United States about whether XRP should be treated as a security. SEC v. Ripple Labs, Inc..
Notes for readers who want more context: The XRP Ledger is an independent technology from Ripple Labs, although the two are related. XRP is the token used on that network. 21Shares is one of several firms that create investment products linked to cryptocurrencies, and they sometimes mention regulatory changes as a major factor that can affect prices. The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand whether they are getting paid fairly for the risk of an investment. The SEC v. Ripple Labs case has shaped how U.S. institutions can engage with XRP in recent years.