A well-known crypto analyst has explained why the crypto market is going down right now and also why there might be reasons to feel hopeful in the long term. The analysis came from Alex Good, who runs Post Fiat and is sometimes known as goodalexander. He shared his thoughts on February 3, 2026. At that time, crypto markets were feeling a very negative mood for months, and Bitcoin was trading near its lowest level in about nine months.
To help readers understand what is happening, the analyst outlined eight main factors that are weighing on prices. He also talked about reasons why some people still think crypto could do better later on. Below is a simple overview of those points, with easy explanations for any difficult words.
What is causing the current downturn? Eight factors
- 1. The big blockchain stories haven’t added lasting value. The market has waited for major ideas about how blockchains will work in everyday use to pay off, but this did not happen in a strong way. For example, a small rise in prices happened when Arbitrum, a technology built to speed up Ethereum, got a one-time boost after Robinhood announced something. But that boost didn’t last. At the same time, Nasdaq started using private blockchains for some trading, instead of public, open systems. That means the technology did not reach broad, real-world use as quickly as hoped. (For what Arbitrum is, you can read more here: Arbitrum.)
- 2. Real fee income on big blockchains has been small. ‘Fees’ are the money paid to use a blockchain network. For the main blockchains, the amount of money earned per day by users paying fees has been low. A notable example is Solana, where daily fees dropped from peaks above a high level to about $1 million now. That compares with much higher levels seen during a later hype period tied to a different event. (Solana is explained here: Solana.)
- 3. The big economic picture pulled people toward other assets. Investors are watching traditional places like international stocks, gold, and new tech areas like artificial intelligence (AI). When people focus on these, they might move money away from crypto for a while, which can push prices down. (If you want to know what gold or AI means in simple terms, they are explained widely in sources like Wikipedia.)
- 4. The market acted like a “Trump proxy.” Some people hoped for crypto-friendly policy changes from leaders who support it. But those policy changes did not fully appear as hoped, so the market did not get the boost it expected. A proxy here means people used crypto policy hopes as a stand-in for how good the market would be, and that hope faded at times.
- 5. Some structural market pressures. This is about how the market is built. If the discounts on digital asset trusts (DATs) get bigger, some activists—investors who try to push changes in a company—could be encouraged to sell the actual tokens behind those trusts. That selling adds more downward pressure on prices.
- 6. Social media mood (FUD) turned negative. FUD stands for fear, uncertainty, and doubt. After Bitcoin dropped about 16% in a week, data from a research firm called Santiment said social media was very negative for regular, non-professional investors. This kind of mood can scare people away from buying, even if the long-term case is still valid.
- 7. Money leaving crypto products. Data from CoinShares showed about $1.7 billion left digital asset investment products in a single week. Bitcoin alone had about $1.32 billion leave. Since October 2025, the total amount of money invested in the sector has fallen by about $73 billion. When investors pull their money out, prices tend to fall because demand goes down.
- 8. Broader market forces and risk appetite. Many investors are rethinking how much risk they want to take. The overall appetite for risk in financial markets can push crypto up or down. If investors prefer safer assets, crypto may struggle more in the short term.
What could still support crypto in the long run?
- Longer-term reasons for hope. Despite the recent fall, Good pointed to some ongoing trends that could renew interest in assets with a fixed supply (these are assets that are not easily created more of, like gold or Bitcoin). He expects a more uneven (fragmented) global political and economic order, rising debt levels, and the possibility of wealth taxes in some places. These factors could push people to seek assets that are scarce and harder to create more of. In other words, people might look for places to store value that don’t rely on growing supply.
- Artificial intelligence (AI) might push central banks to ease policy. Some think AI could lead to higher unemployment in the future, which would push governments and central banks to make monetary policy a bit looser to help the economy. In the past, when central banks ease policy (make borrowing cheaper), scarce assets like Bitcoin sometimes do well because people look for places to protect wealth.
- Other analysts see the cycle as strained, not broken. On February 2, 2026, Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor, said Bitcoin’s fall was mainly about money leaving the United States due to fiscal and political issues, plus a government shutdown. He argued this wasn’t a sign that the market structure failed. He also suggested that if liquidity (the ease of moving money around) becomes easier later in the year, conditions could improve, even if momentum is weak in the near term.
What traders are watching now
Right now, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can stay steady in the mid-$70,000 range. Some market watchers, like Daan Crypto Trades, say that if Bitcoin can move back above $80,000 for a while, markets might calm down. But if prices break lower again, sentiment could weaken further and more selling could happen.
The original report where these ideas came from was published on CryptoPotato.
Definitions of terms used in this article
- Bitcoin: Bitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrency. It started in 2009 and uses a peer-to-peer network and a public ledger called a blockchain. Transactions are verified using cryptography and a process called proof-of-work, which miners perform to secure the network. Learn more on Wikipedia.
- Arbitrum: Arbitrum is a layer-2 scaling solution for the Ethereum blockchain. It uses optimistic rollups to increase the number of transactions people can do and to lower costs, while trying to keep the security of the base Ethereum network. Learn more on Wikipedia.
- Robinhood Markets: Robinhood Markets, Inc. is an American company that offers a mobile app to buy and sell stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), options, futures, and cryptocurrency. It makes money mainly from order flow and other services. Learn more on Wikipedia.
- Nasdaq: Nasdaq Stock Market is an American stock exchange that operates electronically and is one of the largest stock markets in the world by value. It lists many kinds of investments and trades them online. Learn more on Wikipedia.
- Solana: Solana is a public blockchain platform that uses a proof-of-stake system and supports smart contracts. Its native token is SOL. It aims to be fast and cheap to use, but it has faced network outages and regulatory questions. Learn more on Wikipedia.
Notes: The explanations above are designed to be simple and clear. If you want to read more about these topics, you can follow the linked Wikipedia pages for each term.