First Coin

Bitcoin and Ethereum slump, Hyperliquid shines: a beginner’s recap of the latest crypto moves

In the last few days, the world of big cryptocurrencies has seen some tough times. Most top coins fell a lot. Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to prices not seen since 2024. Ethereum (ETH) also fell, going well under $2,000. But one cryptocurrency stood out in a different way. Hyperliquid (HYPE) moved up a lot, with its price rising about 60% in two weeks. In this simple recap, we will explain what happened to these three coins and what the numbers mean for new investors who are still learning about crypto.

First, let’s look at Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the first and the most famous cryptocurrency. It was created to let people send money directly to each other online, without banks. It runs on a public digital ledger called a blockchain. You can think of the blockchain as a very long, public notebook that records every Bitcoin transaction. If you want to learn more, you can read about Bitcoin here: Bitcoin.

Bitcoin started the year strong. At one point, it even tried to reach a big milestone called $100,000. But in the last weeks, the price fell a lot. On February 5, it dropped to around $60,000. Since then, it has recovered a little and is trading near $66,400. That means it is about 20% lower than it was a week ago. For many traders, this kind of move feels like a storm in the market, with big prices swinging up and down quickly.

Why do people expect more bad days? Some well-known thinkers and analysts have made predictions that prices could fall more. One analyst named Ali Martinez reminded readers that since 2015, Bitcoin often has trouble climbing back above a certain level called the 100-week simple moving average (SMA) after it falls below it. A moving average is a simple way to see the average price over a period of time. If Bitcoin breaks a long-term line like the 100-week SMA, some traders think it could keep moving down toward another line, the 200-week SMA, which is a more conservative, longer-term measure. In plain terms, these lines are like guardrails on a price chart that help people guess where prices might go next. If the price falls below them, the market sometimes stays weak for a while. Martinez’s chart suggests Bitcoin could drop toward about $57,600. For those who like big numbers, that would be a big drop from today’s prices.

Another influential voice in the crypto world is PlanB, the anonymous creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. This model tries to predict Bitcoin’s price by looking at how much Bitcoin exists (stock) versus how much new Bitcoin is produced (flow). PlanB discussed several possible futures, including a very sharp fall to $25,000. In other words, some experts are warning that prices could go much lower if certain market conditions persist. You can learn about the Stock-to-Flow model here: Stock-to-flow model.

What is happening with big investors? Data from Santiment, a group that studies on-chain activity, shows that very large holders—sometimes called “whales” (owners with very large amounts of Bitcoin) and “shark wallets” (also large but somewhat smaller than whales)—have been selling BTC in recent days. At the same time, smaller investors, often called retail buyers, have been buying more or at least not selling as much. This mix—big investors selling and smaller investors buying—has often happened during bear markets. This pattern can push prices lower for a while. The analysis from Santiment adds this idea: when the big players sell and the regular people start to buy, it usually means the market is entering a selling period, unless the crowd suddenly decides to buy a lot at once. If you want to see the exact ideas they share, you can read more here: Santiment.

Meanwhile, there is a widely watched market sentiment gauge called the Fear & Greed Index. This index tries to measure how investors feel right now—are they scared, or greedy, or somewhere in between? Right now, the index for Bitcoin has fallen to 9. That is the lowest it has been since the summer of 2022. An index reading this low means “extreme fear.” This does not always mean prices will crash, but it can be a sign that many investors are worried and not sure what to do next. Some famous investors say that fear can also create good buying opportunities. A famous saying from Warren Buffett, often called the Oracle of Omaha, is that “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” In simple terms, he means you should consider buying when prices are low and everyone seems worried. You can read more about Warren Buffett here: Warren Buffett.

Now, let us turn to Ethereum. Ethereum is the second-biggest cryptocurrency. It runs a little differently from Bitcoin. It is not just money; it also runs programs called smart contracts and decentralized applications. Ethereum’s price recently fell to around $1,750, a level that traders call a nine-month low. At the time of writing, ETH is trading around $1,900, which is about 30% lower than a week before. So in the last seven days, the price dropped a lot.

What is driving Ethereum’s weakness? One factor is activity in the world of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track ETH. ETFs are investment products that let people buy a bunch of ETH through a single security, like a stock. When big investors pull money out of these ETFs, it can lead to selling pressure in the underlying asset. In simple words, if a lot of big investors take money out of an ETH ETF, the price of ETH can go down as demand decreases. There has also been news that Vitalik Buterin, one of Ethereum’s co-founders, sold millions of dollars worth of ETH. This kind of move can worry other investors, even though it is not always a signal of a long-term trend. If you want to learn who Vitalik Buterin is, you can read here: Vitalik Buterin.

Analysts have offered some ideas about where ETH might find support. One analyst called Ted, who posts on X (the social media platform formerly known as Twitter), argued that the next major support level could be around the lows seen in April 2025. Back then, ETH briefly fell below $1,400. When a price approaches a level where many investors think it will stop falling, that level is called support. If the price breaks that level, further declines can happen. Another analyst, Ali Martinez, has a different measure called the Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV. He says Bitcoin and Ethereum often bottom when the MVRV ratio goes below 0.80. Recently, the ETH MVRV was around 0.96. This number suggests there could be more downside before the price finds a solid bottom. In simple terms, MVRV compares how much the market currently values ETH to the value it has realized on the network, which is a way to gauge real buyer interest. If you want to read more about this concept, you can see it here: Market Value to Realized Value.

On a brighter note, Hyperliquid (HYPE) has been moving in the opposite direction of BTC and ETH. This coin has gone up about 60% in the last two weeks. What is helping HYPE rise? There have been important developments around its HIP-3 markets. HIP-3 is a set of features and markets on the Hyperliquid platform that aim to make trading more interesting or efficient for users. The company behind HYPE said that HIP-3 markets hit new records, with open interest reaching $1 billion and daily trading volume in the last 24 hours hitting $4.8 billion. Open interest is the total value of all active contracts that have not been settled yet, and it shows how much money traders are putting into those markets. A high number usually means lots of trading activity and confidence from traders that the market will move. In simple terms, open interest is like a measure of how many bets are currently on the table. If you want to read more about such ideas in general, you can search for open interest and trading volume definitions here: Open interest and Trading volume.

Analysts who follow HYPE have become more optimistic. Crypto General, a well-known market watcher, said short-term price moves could be volatile, but he also thought there could be a move above $100 later this year. Another analyst, Zach, said there are many reasons to buy and hold HYPE for now. All these opinions are just ideas; they do not guarantee what will happen next. Investments in crypto can move up and down quickly, and people should be careful and do their own research.

In summary, Bitcoin and Ethereum have both faced big price drops recently, driven by a mix of investor sentiment, moving average levels, and the behavior of large holders. The fear in the market and news about big players selling can push prices lower in the short term. Ethereum’s weakness is also tied to lighter interest from institutions in the ETH market and some significant sales by a founder. Hyperliquid, on the other hand, has seen strong buying interest and growing activity on its platform, which has helped its price rise. While this does not guarantee future gains, it shows that different parts of the crypto world can move in different directions at the same time.

Definitions — quick explanations for terms you might see in crypto news: