Bitcoin is sending more signs that the bear market may last longer. A bear market is a period when prices are falling or are expected to fall. In simple words, prices go down and many investors feel worried. Some experts think the worst may not be over, but there is a chance the bottom could come soon.
Bitcoin has now closed for a third week below the 100-week moving average, and it has stayed under this line for 13 days in a row. A moving average is a way to look at prices over a number of weeks. It helps traders see big, long term patterns by smoothing out weekly up and down moves. In this case, the 100‑week moving average is the long term line people watch. For a quick explanation of what a moving average is, you can read the Moving average page.
Historically, Bitcoin has spent a long time below this line. On average, it stays under the 100‑week moving average for about 267 days. The shortest spell was 34 days during the Covid market crash in March 2020. These numbers come from past patterns and do not guarantee what will happen now. Nic Puckrin, who runs the Coin Bureau information site, said this on Monday: since the price has stayed under that line for a long time, it might stay there longer this time too. He added that a quick bounce back is possible, but the longer the price stays below the line, the less likely a quick rebound becomes.
More losses could mean good chances to buy
Another well known trader, Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN, said something that sounds hopeful for long term buyers. He noted that the holder’s supply in profit/loss is rising. In plain words, more people who own Bitcoin are now in a loss on their purchases. This situation has happened in past bear markets in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Van de Poppe said that when many traders are in loss, it can create opportunities for people who want to buy and hold for a longer time. In other words, prices could be low enough for new buys to be attractive later on.
Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, also shared a cautious view. He said Bitcoin is not pumpable right now. In market language, this means there is not enough buying pressure to push the price up in a strong way. He explained that selling pressure is too heavy for any multiplier effect. In his view, even big holders or crypto treasuries will not be able to lift prices until the market becomes more ready to rise. He added a thought about the future: if big inflows do come, they might help, but not before the market becomes pumpable again. The quote on his X post also mentions that a large inflow did not translate into higher prices yet.
In a related discussion about cash, some analysts highlighted how dollars can affect Bitcoin’s value. Back in 2024, they noted that $10 billion in cash could create about $26 billion in Bitcoin book value. In 2025, even larger inflows of about $308 billion were expected, yet the total market value fell by about $98 billion. By market value here, we mean the market capitalization, or the total value of all Bitcoins in circulation. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the current price by the number of coins in existence. You can read more about market capitalization on the Market capitalization page.
Analysts also discuss the idea of unrealized losses and how they relate to the overall value of the market. Glassnode, a data firm, reported that the unrealized market loss is around $70,000 and this is roughly 16% of the Bitcoin market cap. In this context, unrealized losses refer to losses on holdings that have not yet been sold. They are not actual cash losses until the asset is sold. This kind of measure helps investors understand how many positions would lose money if prices do not rise again. Some compare this to past patterns from early May 2022 when similar pain appeared in the market. For a quick background, bear market conditions are a time when prices stay low or fall for a while, and many investors feel pessimistic.
Another analyst, Sykodelic, commented on Bitcoin trading volume. Volume is the amount of Bitcoin that people buy and sell in a given time. He said that during the move down to the $60,000 area, Bitcoin saw the fourth largest volume period since the 2022 bottom. This means many coins changed hands, which can signal a big price move. However, he also noted that every time the market has seen volume this high in the recent past, it has often preceded a turning point in price. This makes it unclear whether $60,000 would be the bottom this time. In other words, high trading volume can show important activity, but it does not guarantee a price bottom until other signals confirm a change in direction.
Bitcoin price action recently
Bitcoin has fallen below the $70,000 level twice on Monday and traded around $69,000 on Tuesday morning in Asia. Since the big crash to $60,000 on Friday, the price has been moving in a narrow range near this area. The asset is now down around 44% from its all time high and is considered to be in bear market territory. In simple terms, the market is in a period of overall falling prices. The path of least resistance, a trading phrase that means the most likely direction of price movement, is downward for now. In practical terms, many traders expect more decline before any sustained recovery.
To help readers understand some terms used in this report, here are short, clear explanations with links to Wikipedia pages:
- Bitcoin — the first decentralized cryptocurrency that uses a peer to peer network and a public blockchain to record transactions, secured by mining. See Bitcoin.
- Bear market — a market condition where prices are falling or expected to fall, usually with widespread pessimism. See Bear market.
- Moving average — a statistic that creates a series of averages from subsets of data, used to smooth short term fluctuations and emphasize longer term trends. See Moving average.
- Market capitalization — the total value of a company or asset, calculated as price times the number of units in existence. See Market capitalization.
- Book value — the value of an asset as recorded on a balance sheet, usually original cost minus depreciation. See Book value.
In summary, analysts see mixed signals. Some indicators suggest the bear market could last longer, while others point to possible opportunities if prices fall to new levels that attract more buyers. The coming weeks will be important for Bitcoin as traders watch for clearer signs of whether the price will continue to drift lower or start to recover. For now, the market remains cautious, and many investors are paying close attention to any new moves in price and volume.