Bitcoin is still showing a mostly downward price trend. This means the overall market direction is down. But there is a short-term attempt to recover from a big price area, called a demand zone, around $60,000 to $62,000. A demand zone is a price level where buyers tend to step in and push the price higher. Right now, the market sits in a space between a larger, longer-term downtrend and a smaller, shorter-term rebound that is trying to form.
The daily chart overview
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is moving inside a clearly defined downward channel. A descending channel is like a downward corridor with two lines: an upper line and a lower line that both slope downward. These lines guide the big, overall shape of the price action.
Bitcoin fell below about $79,000 and then broke under the $75,000 level. This move pushed the price toward the big demand zone near $60,000. In that area, buyers showed strong interest and the price bounced higher.
Recently, the price has moved back up into the low-to-mid $60,000s. But the big picture is still negative. The price is below the middle line of the down channel and also below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Moving averages are tools used to smooth out price data and show longer-term trends. Here, the 100-day and 200-day lines are both sloping downward, which supports the bearish view (see a simple explanation of moving averages here).
As long as Bitcoin remains below the broken $75.3K support and below a cluster of levels around $78.9K to $81.4K (these are based on a Fibonacci retracement method), the daily trend stays negative. In plain terms: the path of least resistance on the daily chart is still downward. What we are seeing now is likely a pullback within the bigger downtrend, not a confirmed reversal where the trend would flip higher.
4-hour chart: a closer look at the rebound
When we zoom in to the 4-hour time frame, the rebound looks more like a correction inside a down move. After a sharp move lower that touched the $60,000 region, prices formed a base and started climbing toward the $70,000 area. But this recovery is happening under a downward-sloping trendline. A trendline is a line that connects the highs or lows and helps show the direction of price movement.
The area between roughly $73,000 and $76,000 has become a strong hurdle. This zone used to act as support (a place where buyers helped the price hold up). Now it acts as resistance (a place where sellers push the price down).
Until the price can reclaim this zone and break the pattern of lower highs (each rally gets weaker than the last), the short-term structure remains vulnerable to another move down. In simple terms: if the price cannot push above this resistance and stay there, a new test of the $60,000 demand zone becomes more likely.
Right now, prices are consolidating around the high-$60,000s. This means buyers and sellers are in a temporary balance. If the price can break above the descending trendline, that could open the door to the mid-$70,000s. But if momentum falters, we could see another move toward the $60,000 area.
What on-chain data suggests
On-chain data looks at information recorded on the Bitcoin network itself. One useful measure is the Long-Term Holder SOPR (SOPR stands for Spent Output Profit Ratio). It helps show whether those who hold Bitcoin for a long time are selling at a profit or loss. A rising SOPR means big holders could be selling into a rally, while a falling SOPR can indicate more selling pressure.
Recent data shows that the long-term holder group is starting to feel the pressure. The annual average of this measure has stayed high at about 1.87, but it recently dropped below 1.0, to around 0.88. This kind of drop is unusual and has not been seen since the later stages of the 2023 bear market. Historically, when such a drop happens, it can be a sign that even strong holders are starting to reduce their exposure during a larger correction. In other words, the market is experiencing stress even among the patient, long-term investors.
However, the story is not entirely one-sided. Another long-term measure, the monthly average SOPR, sits around 1.09. This indicates that, overall, long-term holders are still realizing some profits on their sales. In past bear markets, complete capitulation (a total, blanket selling of holdings) has often happened when SOPR plunges toward very low levels, such as around 0.5. So, while there is stress, it is not yet a sign of full capitulation.
Put simply: the on-chain data shows early stress in the long-term investor group. This could either calm down if the price stabilizes, or it could become deeper selling if selling pressure grows stronger. This kind of signal is one reason traders stay cautious about calling a bottom or a major reversal.
Note: This analysis is reported by CryptoPotato and reflects today’s observed patterns in price action and on-chain data.
Definitions
- Bitcoin — Bitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrency that enables peer-to-peer value transfer without a central authority. (A very simple way to understand it: think of it as digital money that you can send directly to someone else over the internet, without a bank in the middle.)
- Moving average — A moving average is a way to smooth out price data by creating a series of averages of different subsets of the data. This helps investors see longer-term trends more clearly. (If you imagine tracing the average price over many days, you get a line that shows where prices are generally headed.)
- Fibonacci retracement — This is a technical analysis method used to identify potential support and resistance levels based on ratios from the Fibonacci sequence. (Think of it as horizontal lines drawn on a chart to mark possible places where the price might pause or reverse.)
- Technical analysis — A way to forecast price movements by studying past market data, mainly price and volume. (In simple terms: looking at charts to guess what might happen next.)
- Bear market — A market condition in which prices fall (typically by 20% or more from recent highs) over a sustained period. (It’s a time when prices generally go down for a while.)
Further details and updates can be found in Bitcoin price coverage from cryptocurrency news outlets.
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