Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure on Tuesday. The price briefly dipped to about $62,700 after a roughly 5% drop. Many investors stayed cautious because broader economic concerns were weighing on sentiment. This kind of drop can happen when traders worry about bigger problems in the economy, business profits, or government policy, which makes them careful about putting money into risky assets like Bitcoin.
New data show Bitcoin is still in a defensive mood. Money appears to be flowing out of the network, and the total value of all Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved hasn’t recovered. In plain language, people are not buying a lot right now to push the price higher. Instead, money is leaving or staying away.
Peak Buyers Now Frozen
One important measure is called Realized Cap. This value shows the total value of every Bitcoin, but it uses the price at which each coin last moved. If a single Bitcoin last moved when the price was $40,000, that coin contributes $40,000 to Realized Cap, even if the current price is higher or lower. This helps investors see how much money is actually active in the market, based on recent activity rather than just the current price.
According to a recent analysis by Axel Adler Junior, Realized Cap has fallen for a second consecutive month. This suggests that capital is leaving the network rather than flowing back in. In other words, people are not putting more money into Bitcoin right now; some are taking money out, and others are simply not buying new coins.
The 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change is currently -2.26% and has stayed negative for several weeks. This means that, on average, coins are being moved at prices below their cost basis (the price at which they were bought). It can also mean that incoming money is not enough to offset ongoing outflows. In simple terms, more coins are being moved when their owners are currently at a loss, or not enough new money is coming in to replace what’s leaving.
Realized Cap peaked on 26 November 2025 at about $1.127 trillion. It has since fallen to around $1.094 trillion — a drop of roughly $33 billion. This is a sizable decrease in the total value of Bitcoin based on last-moved prices. When Realized Cap drops like this, it can be a sign that the market is not yet ready to push prices higher, especially if sellers are active and buyers are scarce.
Daily net position changes tend to hover near zero or stay negative. There has been little new capital entering the market. As long as the 30-day Realized Cap remains below zero, Bitcoin is in net outflow mode. A move back into positive territory would be the first clear sign that accumulation (more buying than selling) could be starting. Until that happens, traders should be cautious because there is no strong signal that buyers are returning in force.
HODL Waves and the Age of Coins
Another data set called HODL Waves shows a clear shift in how old Bitcoin coins are. This data tracks how long coins have been held and not moved. It helps analysts understand whether new money is coming in or if people are just holding what they already own.
The latest figures show that coins that last moved 3-6 months ago now make up about 26% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, up from 19% earlier in the month. These coins were mostly bought near the last market peak and have not moved since. In simple terms, a big block of coins bought when prices were high has stayed put and has not been sold yet.
The share of coins held for 6-12 months has grown to just over 20%, while coins moved within the past month account for less than 10% of the supply. This pattern suggests that few new buyers are entering the market. Most circulating coins were bought when prices were higher and are now sitting at a loss, which makes holders reluctant to sell and effectively locks supply in place. In other words, people who bought Bitcoin earlier at higher prices are not eager to sell at a loss, so those coins stay in wallets longer.
The growth of older cohorts does not necessarily represent deliberate strategic accumulation. It could simply be that people are holding because prices are not favorable. A meaningful change would happen if coins in the 3-6 month band begin migrating into longer-term cohorts without triggering renewed selling pressure, and if short-term trading activity returns in a noticeable way. In practice, this would look like more coins moving from the mid-term category to longer holding periods, and some increase in short-term buying or selling activity that balances outflows.
A Familiar Bear Signal Returns
On the technical side, a familiar bearish signal is starting to form again. Analysts watch something called a death cross. A death cross is a bearish chart pattern formed when a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average (one common example is the 50-day line crossing the 200-day line).
Analyst Ali Martinez says a potential death cross on Bitcoin’s three-day chart could occur in late February. In past cycles, this signal has appeared near the end of bear markets and was followed by further price declines. If Bitcoin remains about 50% below its October 2025 peak, as Martinez notes, a similar setup could open the door to more downside movement. It’s important to understand that patterns like the death cross are not guarantees but are used by traders to gauge possible future price directions.
The article from CryptoPotato notes that rising HODL cohorts are appearing alongside these signals, which adds to the mixed picture for traders. A cautious approach is common during times when these signals appear together: some investors choose to wait and watch, while others may try to position themselves for potential moves in either direction.
All of these indicators—price moves, Realized Cap dynamics, coin-age patterns from HODL Waves, and possible death-cross signals—are pieces of a larger puzzle. They help market participants understand where the money is flowing, how investors are feeling, and what the risk landscape looks like in the short term. But they do not guarantee what will happen next. Traders use them to form expectations and adjust their strategies accordingly.
In short, Bitcoin remains under pressure as the market searches for a clear path forward. The combination of ongoing outflows, a cautious mood among holders, and potential technical caution signals points to continued volatility in the near term. Investors should be aware that prices can move quickly in either direction, especially when there are signs that big players are not yet ready to commit new money to the market.
The post Why Bitcoin’s Rising HODL Cohorts Are a Bearish Signal This Time appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Definitions
- Bitcoin — Bitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrency that enables peer-to-peer electronic cash without a central authority, using a blockchain and proof-of-work mining.
- Death cross — A bearish chart pattern formed when a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average (commonly the 50-day crossing the 200-day).
- Bear market — A market trend characterized by falling prices and generally negative sentiment.
- Market trend — The perceived tendency of financial markets to move in a particular direction over time.
- Moving average crossover — When two moving averages of different smoothing levels cross, signaling a potential change in trend.
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