Has Bitcoin bottomed out in this cycle?
Bitcoin, the world’s first and most famous cryptocurrency, saw a big rise and a big fall in a short time. In October 2025, its price rose to above 126,000 dollars. By early February, the price had fallen to around 60,000 dollars. That is a drop of about 52 percent. A fall of this size is very noticeable and surprised many investors.
Many experts called this a bear market. A bear market is when prices keep going down for a while. People become more careful with their money and many traders sell their assets in hopes of avoiding bigger losses. Some analysts warned that more declines could come for Bitcoin.
The situation got even more serious when there was direct military conflict between Israel and the United States against Iran. During that time, Bitcoin quickly fell to new local lows. After a few days, the price started to rise again and reached a monthly high of about 74,000 dollars.
Even though Bitcoin did not reach its old all-time high again in that month, it stayed strong enough to stay around 70,000 dollars. That level was about 15 percent higher than the February low. This made many people wonder: has Bitcoin already found a bottom for this price cycle, or will prices fall again?
To look for answers, we asked two artificial intelligence programs, Gemini and ChatGPT, what they think about whether Bitcoin has already bottomed out in this cycle. Here is what they said, explained in simple language.
What ChatGPT thinks
ChatGPT started by saying that a move of more than 50 percent down is very common for Bitcoin during a normal correction in a bull market. It does not automatically mean a long, deep bear market. In fact, the low near 60,000 dollars often shows up as a typical mid-cycle shakeout. A shakeout is a time when many investors sell, and later some buyers come back in larger numbers.
ChatGPT put the chance that the bottom is already in at about 45 percent. If that happens, the February crash could be the last major selling wave for now. There are several reasons for this view. The price move could have completed a 50 percent correction, liquidity has improved (meaning it is easier to buy and sell without big problems), overall sentiment improves (people feel more positive), and there are more strong buyers stepping in at those price levels.
If Bitcoin has really bottomed, what might happen next? ChatGPT suggested a rise to around 90,000 dollars, then a test of the 100,000-dollar level. After that, the idea is called the “parabolic phase,” a very rapid price increase. In this optimistic scenario, Bitcoin could rise to new all-time highs between 180,000 and 220,000 dollars this year. It is important to note that this is a bold forecast and not guaranteed.
What Gemini thinks
Gemini, a cryptocurrency exchange, agreed for the most part that the bottom could be in. They pointed out that some large losses happened already when some traders used borrowed money to invest (this is called leverage). They also noted that at the February low, Bitcoin’s momentum indicators and its distance from its 200-day moving average reached levels that show the asset was very oversold. Being oversold means the price has fallen too far, too fast, and a bounce is often likely. Gemin i added that the selling pressure had “exhausted itself,” meaning the selling force behind the drop had weakened.
Gemini also explained that there have been crashes caused by leverage in the past. When many borrowed positions are forced to unwind at once, prices can fall quickly. This helps explain why Bitcoin moved so sharply lower at times, and why a rebound can happen just as fast when selling eases.
No Bottom, Not Yet
Even though both AIs lean toward the idea that Bitcoin may have bottomed, they also warn that a worse macro situation could bring another decline. In simple terms: if the overall economy or big financial markets get weaker, Bitcoin could fall again.
Gemini explained that investors have been moving money away from speculative technology stocks. People worry about rising inflation and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Because of these concerns, big institutions—like pension funds and large banks—are not eager to take big risks right now. This can slow down any big price rise for Bitcoin.
ChatGPT gave a small chance—about 20 percent—for one more brutal decline. In this scenario, bears would take control again and push Bitcoin down to roughly 48,000 to 52,000 dollars. There is also a tiny chance of a sharp dip to around 42,000 dollars, but such a move would probably be short-lived and followed by a rebound rather quickly.
In short, the two AI programs think the most likely path is that Bitcoin has already found a bottom. But they also remind us that the situation could change if bigger problems appear in the world economy. The market can be unpredictable, and prices can move quickly in response to new information.
For readers who want a quick summary: the February drop was big, a rebound happened, and the future path could go in several directions. People watching Bitcoin closely will pay attention to things like inflation data, global tensions, and big changes in how much risk big investors are willing to take. The discussion above is based on expert opinions, and nothing about investing is guaranteed. The original discussion about these ideas appeared on CryptoPotato.
Definitions
- Bitcoin: Bitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrency, created in 2009 by an anonymous person or group using the name Satoshi Nakamoto. It operates on a peer-to-peer network and uses a public ledger called a blockchain with mining as a proof-of-work mechanism. (Wikipedia definition).
- Bear market: A bear market is a market trend characterized by falling prices or expectations of decline, typically associated with pessimism and widespread selling; it describes downward market movements over an extended period. (Wikipedia definition).
- FTX: FTX Trading Ltd., known as FTX, was a cryptocurrency exchange that collapsed in 2022 and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, led by founder Sam Bankman-Fried, amid widespread fraud concerns and regulatory scrutiny. (Wikipedia definition).
- Moving average: A moving average is a statistic used to analyze data points by creating a series of averages of different subsets of the full data set; in finance it is used to smooth price data and identify trends. (Wikipedia definition).
- Oscillator (technical analysis): An oscillator is a technical analysis indicator that helps determine whether a security is overbought or oversold by measuring momentum and typically fluctuates within a bounded range. (Wikipedia definition).
Source note: The discussion described above is summarized from a CryptoPotato article discussing what two AI systems said about Bitcoin’s bottom in this cycle.
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