Is Crypto Just a Big Guessing Game? One Analyst Says No
On Tuesday, people on the social media site X (what used to be Twitter) were debating Bitcoin. Some people who love Bitcoin (often called “bulls”) and those who are doubtful (called “skeptics”) had different views.
An expert who goes by the name CrediBULL Crypto made a strong point. He argued against the common idea that digital money like Bitcoin is “just speculation.” To prove his point, he compared it to gold.
This conversation is happening as the crypto market, worth a giant $3 trillion, is trying to recover from a recent price drop and is looking for reasons to grow again.
What’s the Big Deal About Gold and Speculation?
CrediBULL Crypto explained that many critics don’t get how things become valuable. He pointed out that the price of gold went way up in the last year, even though gold itself didn’t change how it’s used in the real world (like in jewelry or electronics).
So, what made its value go up? He says it was mostly due to people’s feelings and expectations.
“Do you really think a rock of gold magically became 100% more valuable in one year?” he asked. “The extra $12 trillion added to gold’s value was because of speculation.”
What is Speculation? Speculation is when you buy something hoping its price will increase so you can sell it for a profit. It’s based more on guessing market trends than on the item’s actual, fundamental worth.
The analyst said this isn’t just a crypto thing. It happens everywhere. He pointed to big technology companies whose stock prices are very high compared to the money they actually make. This is measured by something called the price-to-earnings ratio. A high ratio often means people are speculating that the company will grow a lot in the future.
His main idea is that there are trillions of dollars in other markets, like stocks and gold, that are based on this kind of hopeful guessing. He believes if even a tiny bit of that money (less than 1%) moved into crypto, the whole crypto market could double in value.
“Why worry about prices dropping a little when our whole market is worth $3 trillion? That’s tiny compared to other big markets,” he said.
What is Market Cap? Market Cap (short for market capitalization) is the total value of all the coins or shares available for an asset. For example, if there are 10 million coins of a cryptocurrency and each one is worth $2, the market cap is $20 million (10 million x $2).
How Did People React?
Not everyone agreed. One person asked, “Why would that money move to crypto?”
CrediBULL Crypto’s answer was simple: rising prices. In crypto trading, a price chart shows green bars (or “candles”) when the price goes up. He said that when people see prices rising, more and more people want to buy in, which can make the price go up even faster, like a snowball rolling downhill.
Another person said that “90% of crypto is worthless.” The analyst replied by saying that people should just ignore the worthless ones and focus on the 10% that seem to have real value.
What Else Is Happening in the Market?
This discussion happened at an interesting time for crypto:
- A Big Prediction: Tom Lee, a well-known market expert from a company called Fundstrat, predicted that Bitcoin could hit a new record high price by the end of January 2026. He thinks the U.S. central bank (the Federal Reserve) will make decisions that are good for investments considered “risky,” like stocks and crypto.
- Big Companies Are Getting In: Vanguard, a huge company that manages investments for 50 million people, recently started allowing its clients to trade crypto ETFs. ETFs, or Exchange-Traded Funds, are investment tools that let people buy into assets like Bitcoin on the regular stock market, which is a big deal.
- Money Is Still Flowing: Even though the market has been shaky, big investment companies like Fidelity and ARK are still seeing people put money into their crypto funds. This shows that major players haven’t been scared away by the recent price changes.