At the start of the last three months of 2025, known as Q4 2025 (Q4 stands for the fourth quarter of a year – October, November, and December), people were feeling very optimistic about Bitcoin (Bitcoin is the first-ever cryptocurrency, created in 2008). Many called this time ‘Uptober,’ expecting Bitcoin to grow in value. At first, it seemed like their hopes were coming true. Bitcoin’s value soared to over $126,000, which was a new all-time high.
But things quickly took a dramatic turn. After October 10, 2025, there was a big crash. The value of Bitcoin dropped heavily, and over $19 billion worth of investments were lost because investors had taken too much risk. This major drop is now seen as a defining moment and possibly the start of much tougher times for Bitcoin.
Since the crash, Bitcoin’s value has fallen by more than 30%. It now struggles to climb back above $90,000, a level it is finding very difficult to surpass. Most market analysts believe that Bitcoin has entered a bear market (a term that describes a time when prices are going down for an extended period). Now, the main question is just how low Bitcoin’s price might go and when it will finally hit the bottom.
Will It Take 364 Days to Hit the Low Point?
Experts who study Bitcoin’s price trends have different opinions about its future. One such expert, named Doctor Profit, believes Bitcoin’s value might drop to around $40,000 by the middle of 2026. However, another analyst, Ali Martinez, has a similar but slightly different theory that is based on past trends.
Ali Martinez uses a concept called the ‘cycle top and bottom theory.’ This theory is based on how Bitcoin’s price has behaved in the past over specific time frames. According to Martinez, Bitcoin usually reaches its highest value (top) 1,064 days after it hits its lowest value (bottom). This pattern happened between January 2015 and December 2017, and again between December 2018 and November 2021. The latest all-time high in early October 2025 would also fit this pattern, being 1,064 days after the last low.
Based on this, Martinez believes that the bear market began right after Bitcoin reached $126,000. He argues that the fall in prices has only started and will continue for about 364 days, which is almost a year. So, according to this timeline, Bitcoin’s price might hit its lowest point sometime in October 2026.
How Low Could Bitcoin’s Value Drop?
Martinez further analyzed previous price crashes to predict how much Bitcoin might drop. In the past two bear markets, Bitcoin’s value fell 84% (between 2017 and 2018) and 77% (between 2021 and 2022). If you average these drops, it comes to about an 80% decline.
Using this logic, the next bear market bottom might see Bitcoin’s price fall to around $37,500. While this prediction might sound alarming, it is based on what’s known as the 4-year cycle theory. This theory suggests that Bitcoin and similar digital assets have predictable patterns of rising and falling value every four years.
However, not everyone agrees with this idea. Some experts believe that the 4-year cycle theory may no longer apply to Bitcoin because of new developments. For example, Bitcoin has become more popular with financial institutions, ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds, which are investment tools traded like stocks), and possibly government support. These changes might cause Bitcoin to behave differently than before.
While these predictions make for an interesting discussion, it’s important to remember that the cryptocurrency market (Cryptocurrency Market, where digital coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum are traded) is unpredictable. No prediction is ever 100% certain, and there are plenty of factors that could affect Bitcoin’s future.