Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies in the crypto market are struggling right now. Many people think this is because of a bear market, which means prices are dropping for an extended period. However, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, believes Bitcoin’s value will hit a new record in 2026. He says this will happen because of major changes in the market.
Hougan shared his views in a recent report. He explained that Bitcoin has typically followed a four-year cycle. This cycle is influenced by three things: a Bitcoin halving (a strategy to stop inflation for Bitcoin), changes in interest rates, and periods when people borrow a lot of money to invest. However, Hougan believes these cycles are losing their impact, and the market is becoming stronger overall.
What to Expect in 2026?
In the past, Bitcoin’s price would rise for three years and then drop sharply in the fourth year. If this pattern continues, 2026 should be a weak year for Bitcoin. But Bitwise says this old cycle is changing. Here’s why:
- The influence of Bitcoin halvings is becoming less significant over time.
- Interest rates could go down in 2026 instead of rising like they did in past price dips.
- Risks from borrowing money to invest (leverage) are lower now. This is because there were large money losses in late 2025, and the rules around cryptocurrency trading have become clearer.
Moreover, Bitwise highlights a key reason for expected growth: bigger companies and institutions are getting more interested in Bitcoin. Institutional investors include banks, large organizations, and companies like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch. These companies plan to start investing in Bitcoin in 2026. Many believe this will push Bitcoin prices higher.
Another reason is the growing acceptance of Bitcoin by Wall Street and financial tech companies. After the 2024 U.S. election, regulations for cryptocurrency trading became more friendly. This shift made more people trust Bitcoin and other digital currencies.
Bitcoin Becoming Less Volatile?
Volatility means how much the price of an asset goes up and down. In 2025, Bitcoin became less volatile than Nvidia, a popular technology company. Hougan points out that this change happened because Bitcoin is now owned by a wider range of people and companies. Products like Spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) have made Bitcoin easier to buy and sell. ETFs work like a box that holds investments, allowing people to invest in Bitcoin without directly owning it.
Over the last 10 years, Bitcoin’s volatility has been steadily going down. This trend is expected to continue in 2026 as Bitcoin becomes less risky for investors. This is a good sign for people who don’t like extreme ups and downs in their investments.
Bitcoin and Traditional Stocks
Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin will become less dependent on the stock market, such as the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is a list showing the performance of 500 big U.S. companies on stock exchanges. Usually, Bitcoin is closely tied to prices of tech stocks like Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia. If tech stock prices go down, Bitcoin prices often drop too.
But Bitwise’s data shows that Bitcoin doesn’t always follow tech stocks closely. With better regulations and more institutional investments, Bitcoin could grow even if stocks face challenges. Challenges could come from high prices or slow economic growth.
Why 2026 Could Be Huge for Bitcoin
Bitwise believes that all these factors—strong institutional interest, lower volatility, and less dependence on stock markets—could help Bitcoin grow a lot in 2026. This setup might attract tens of billions of dollars from big companies and organizations. If this happens, Bitcoin’s price could reach heights it has never seen before.
In summary, while Bitcoin isn’t performing well right now, experts like Matt Hougan from Bitwise are optimistic about its future. They expect 2026 to be a strong year for its value, performance, and stability.