Bitcoin has had an exciting year! After the 2024 US presidential elections, Bitcoin’s price began to rise a lot, reaching over $126,000 in early October. It stayed above $100,000 for several months, showing strong interest in Bitcoin, especially due to new spot Bitcoin ETFs. ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) allow people to invest in Bitcoin easily, like buying shares on a stock market. You can learn more here: Exchange-Traded Funds.
But things have changed since Bitcoin’s peak price. Its value has dropped by over 30%, and as of now, it’s below $90,000. Because of this, people are feeling less confident about Bitcoin, and many analysts think Bitcoin is starting a long phase of lower prices (called a bearish phase). However, not everyone agrees. An expert called Merlijn The Trader sees it differently.
Bitcoin Is Not Crashing, Says Analyst
Merlijn shared a tweet explaining why he believes there’s no need to worry. He referenced Raoul Pal, a financial expert, who explained in a recent interview that Bitcoin is no longer following its usual “four-year halving cycle.” This cycle used to make Bitcoin prices go up periodically because the way new Bitcoins are created would change. For more about Bitcoin’s halving cycles and how they work, go here: Bitcoin.
Raoul Pal believes that Bitcoin’s price now depends more on liquidity. Liquidity means how much money is flowing in markets. If there is more money available to invest, prices can rise. He also said Bitcoin has now grown into a global commodity, much like gold or oil, and it behaves differently than it used to. Merlijn agreed with this idea.
Instead of focusing on old patterns like halving cycles, these analysts say the market now depends more on real-world events, such as:
- The global economic slowdown reaching its lowest point (this is called “business cycle bottoming”).
- Governments starting to spend more money to stimulate the economy (fiscal stimulus).
- Central banks creating more money (often called “the global money printer warming up”).
- Big financial institutions trying to keep up and invest more.
Merlijn says these price drops are not the end of Bitcoin’s uptrend. Instead, he calls these moments “slingshots,” like pulling back a sling to release it and shoot forward. He points out that traders need to stop thinking about Bitcoin’s past behavior and adjust to this “new cycle.” He puts it this way: “Trade like it’s the old cycle that no longer exists. Or get ready for the new exponential growth that’s already happening.”
Could Bitcoin Hit $600,000 in 2026?
Thinking about the future, some experts are making big predictions. Wise Crypto, an anonymous analyst, recently shared their thoughts on next year. They believe Bitcoin could reach a surprising price of $600,000 in 2026. This would only happen if many positive events align perfectly, creating what’s called a “crypto storm.”
Some of these events include:
- The U.S. Federal Reserve stopping its “quantitative tightening.” This is when the central bank pulls money out of the market by selling assets. To understand more about this, check here: Quantitative Tightening.
- Lower interest rates and more money available to borrow, making it easier for businesses and individuals to invest.
- Short-term funds to support the U.S. government (like Treasury bills). Learn more about them here: Treasury Bills.
- The impact of the U.S. mid-term elections, which could create better conditions for investments.
Although predicting prices so far ahead is very hard, many still believe that Bitcoin has a bright future. It’s an exciting time for the world of cryptocurrencies as they become more accepted globally.
The original article first appeared on CryptoPotato.