Bitcoin is the world’s most talked about digital money. It has moved mostly downward since October. It fell by more than half of its best price from its all-time high to a low near 60,000 US dollars on February 6. Since then, it has recovered some ground, but when you look at the year so far, the price is still negative overall.
A data company named Santiment looked at who was selling and who was buying during this long period of price changes. The goal was to understand how different groups of investors are reacting. The findings show a clear pattern, but they do not clearly predict an immediate price rise or fall.
Who’s selling and who’s buying? Santiment reports two main groups in the bitcoin market that behaved differently. First are wallets that hold between 10 and 10,000 bitcoins. Since the October peak, these wallets have reduced their positions by 0.8 percent. In plain language, some larger individual owners or small funds with fairly large holdings have sold a small amount of their bitcoin during the decline.
Second are the so‑called micro investors. These are people who own 0.1 bitcoin or less in a single wallet. This group increased their holdings by 2.5 percent over the same period. In simple terms, many very small holders added a little more bitcoin to their wallets while larger holders sold a little.
Even with these movements, Santiment says this behavior does not signal that a new price rally is coming right away. The idea is that for a rally to become strong, you would want both big holders and smaller buyers to start buying more aggressively again. Without support from big buyers, a price rise could be limited. The researchers also noted that regular, everyday investors, often called retail investors, have not backed away. They currently hold what Santiment calls the largest amount of bitcoin in almost two years. That means they have not panicked and have kept buying or holding onto their bitcoin.
Bitcoin Investor Behavior (Source: Santiment) shows two different moods among buyers. One group with larger holdings is selling a bit. The other group with tiny holdings is buying a bit more. This mix does not automatically create a rally, but it does show ongoing interest from different types of buyers.
ETF investors have been moving in the opposite direction
Now compare this with investors who buy bitcoin through something called an exchange-traded fund or ETF. An ETF is a kind of investment fund that you can buy on a stock market. It tracks a gold, stock, or other asset and makes it easy to own that asset without buying it directly in the market. In plain words, an ETF is a way to get bitcoin exposure by buying shares in a fund rather than holding the digital coins yourself.
When bitcoin was near its all-time high of more than 126,000 dollars, ETF investors put more money into these funds. In the two weeks leading up to that peak, they poured in more than 6 billion dollars. It looked like a flood of money was flowing into these funds at that time.
But after the peak, the flow turned negative. Over many weeks, there were large withdrawals from these ETFs. In early November, there were three weeks in a row with more than 3.5 billion dollars pulled out. This red trend continued into the start of the new year. Right now, the situation shows a five-week streak of net losses for spot bitcoin ETFs. Spot means buying bitcoin on the actual market rather than in a futures contract.
New data from a source called SoSoValue shows even bigger numbers. In the week that ended on January 23, ETF investors pulled out 1.33 billion dollars. In the next week, another 1.49 billion dollars followed. The good news is that the amount of money leaving these funds has slowed down a bit in the last three weeks, with net inflows dropping to less than 360 million dollars. Still, the total amount of money that has moved into spot bitcoin ETFs since early October has fallen from about 62.8 billion dollars to around 54 billion dollars by last Friday.
These patterns show a mixed mood in the bitcoin market. Some large holders are selling a bit, some small buyers are adding more, and the ETF crowd has pulled money out after a big start. All of this matters because the behavior of big and small buyers can influence the price over time. If big holders stop selling and start buying again, it could help a rally. If they keep selling or stay on the sidelines, any move up could stay modest.
What does this mean in simple terms? In markets like bitcoin, different groups of buyers and sellers have different goals and time horizons. Large holders might trade for reasons such as risk control or reallocating their portfolios. Small buyers might be more driven by beliefs about the future price or by the thrill of catching a rise. ETFs are another layer because they let many investors buy exposure to bitcoin without owning the coins themselves. When ETF money pours in, it can support the price. When ETF money leaves, it can push the price down, especially if the outflows are big and last for many weeks.
In short, the latest data show that the market is not all one story. Some groups are buying, some are selling, and others are pulling money out of ETFs. The overall result is a lack of a clear, strong signal for a big price move in the near term. Investors will be watching closely to see if the big holders start buying again, or if retail buyers keep accumulating and eventually push the price higher.
Glossary of terms
Bitcoin — Bitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrency that enables peer-to-peer electronic cash without a central issuer, using a blockchain and proof-of-work to validate transactions. In simple words, it is digital money that people can send to each other on the internet without banks in between. It runs on technology called a blockchain and uses a special process called proof-of-work to confirm transactions.
Exchange-traded fund — Exchange-traded fund is a security that tracks an underlying index or asset and is bought and sold on stock exchanges. It is a way to own a broad mix of assets with usually low fees and simple trading, similar to buying a single stock.
Spot market — Spot market is a public market where financial instruments or commodities are traded for immediate delivery. This is different from futures markets, where delivery happens later.
Satoshi Nakamoto — Satoshi Nakamoto is the name used by the person or group who designed Bitcoin and wrote the original Bitcoin white paper. The real identity behind this name is unknown.
Whale (finance) — Whale (finance) means a person or company that holds a very large position in an asset and can move its price through their big trades.
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