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Bitcoin Rebounds Above $76K, but Analysts See Cycle Bottom Much Lower

Crypto markets had another day of heavy selling. In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) fell toward the mid 70,000s. It touched around 74,000 dollars for a short time, but then it recovered and moved back above 76,800 dollars. Despite the rebound, Bitcoin is still down about 13% over the past week. This kind of move is common in markets that are going through a period of uncertainty or fear. When prices drop quickly, some traders sell out of fear or to avoid bigger losses, which can push prices down even more for a while.

Analysts watching the market say this recent action could be part of a larger trend. They suggest that the market might be entering a deeper bear phase. A bear market is a period when prices fall over a longer stretch, and investors feel pessimistic about the future. This is the opposite of a bull market, when prices rise and optimism is common. For readers who want a simple definition, you can think of a bear market as a time when prices generally go down and many people expect more declines to come.

Deeper Cycle Lows

A well-known crypto analyst going by the name Doctor Profit has updated his forecast for where Bitcoin’s price might bottom out. He now thinks the bottom will likely be in a range between 54,000 dollars and 44,000 dollars. This is much lower than earlier predictions and reflects new analysis of price patterns and key levels in the market.

Doctor Profit points to a specific technical development to explain the shift. He says Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-week moving average. A moving average is a way to smooth out price changes and see longer-term trends. It is calculated by averaging the price of an asset over a number of weeks or days. The 100-week moving average (sometimes written as MA100 Weekly) is the average price over the last 100 weeks. When Bitcoin is above this line, many traders see it as a sign of a stronger market. When it falls below, it is often taken as a signal that the market may be turning weaker. For context, Bitcoin rose above this moving average in October 2023, which helped confirm the previous bull market. Now, two years later, it has broken below again. That break is seen by Doctor Profit as a sign that the market is shifting toward a bear market.

In addition to the moving average break, Doctor Profit mentions a death cross. A death cross is a chart pattern that can appear when a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average. It is often interpreted as a warning that prices may fall further. He notes that today’s setup looks very similar to the pattern seen during the 2021–2022 cycle peak and the subsequent downturn. He argues that the drop below the MA100 Weekly was quick and decisive, which supports his view of a bearish transition. In his view, the market has slipped out of a bullish flag pattern he has discussed in recent weeks, and that adds another layer of caution for traders.

Looking ahead, Doctor Profit expects Bitcoin to finish the coming week still below the MA100 Weekly. He thinks the price will enter another period of consolidation, where it trades in a relatively narrow range for a time. After that, he forecasts a move lower toward a target around 70,000 dollars. He stresses that this 70,000 figure is not the bottom of the cycle. He previously predicted a bottom in the 50,000–60,000 range when Bitcoin traded much higher (around 115,000 to 125,000 dollars). With new data and models, he says the bottom could be even lower than his earlier estimate.

Based on his latest calculations, the new bottom zone is 54,000 to 44,000 dollars. He describes this as the most likely area where the true cycle low will occur. He also points to another risk factor: Bitcoin dropping below Strategy’s average entry price, which is around 76,000 dollars. In his view, this drop could amplify fear and panic in the market because it signals that major buyers are underwater and may need to rethink their positions.

Doctor Profit adds more detail about Strategy, a firm that holds Bitcoin. A large portion of Strategy’s Bitcoin was bought with leverage. Leverage means borrowing money to buy more of an asset than you could with your own cash. If the price goes down, losses can be amplified. Strategy also uses stock as collateral, and that collateral has fallen in value. This situation makes it harder for the firm to stabilize its position when Bitcoin’s price drops. He notes that Strategy’s overall Bitcoin position is now roughly flat on a profit-and-loss basis, and he emphasizes that no profits were taken so far. This combination of leverage and falling collateral can create additional pressure in the market during sharp declines.

Beyond the price charts, Doctor Profit touches on the feeling in the market. He warns that ongoing fear could be intensified by external narratives or news stories. For example, there has been public discussion around the potential release of documents connected to Epstein. He says such stories can fuel emotional selling, even if the information isn’t fully proven. In markets like crypto, headlines can move prices quickly because many investors react to any sign of trouble, real or rumored.

BTC May Need a New Narrative

Another piece of the bear case comes from Matrixport, a market research firm. Matrixport recently published a market update that highlights weaker demand from traditional finance investors through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a type of investment fund that trades on stock exchanges. ETFs can be a way for ordinary investors to buy or sell a broad basket of assets without directly owning each asset. In the case of Bitcoin, a spot Bitcoin ETF would track the actual price of Bitcoin rather than a futures contract or other instrument.

Matrixport’s update notes that Bitcoin ETFs have seen three straight months of net outflows. Net outflows happen when more money leaves the ETFs than enters them. This is important because it shows that big, traditional financial players are not yet pulling new money into Bitcoin through these products. The report also mentions that many US wealth managers only recently began giving their clients access to these ETFs, so the flow of money into them is still in early stages.

Even though gold has shown strong performance and the broader trend towards reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar remains in focus, Matrixport says the absence of steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs is a sign of weak demand from traditional investors. This trend suggests that Bitcoin may need a new or refreshed storyline to attract these big investors back into the market. In other words, there needs to be a clear reason for traditional funds to buy Bitcoin again, beyond the excitement of a rapid rally. Until such a narrative appears, the bottom for Bitcoin could be delayed and could come at a lower price than some investors expect.

The report ends with a cautious view: while Bitcoin has shown resilience and occasional sharp recoveries, the path to a longer-term bottom that inspires new buying interest remains uncertain. Traders and investors will be watching price action, on-chain activity (the actual movement and use of Bitcoin on the network), and fund flows to determine how to position themselves in the coming weeks. The market could stay choppy for some time as buyers and sellers test the limits of how low prices can go and how quickly buyers are willing to step back in.

For readers who are new to this topic, here are quick explanations of some key terms used in this article. These are simple definitions to help you understand what is being discussed. If you want more details, you can click the linked Wikipedia pages for each term.

Note: This explanation uses simple terms to help readers understand the article. For a deeper and more technical explanation, you can read the linked Wikipedia definitions.