Bitcoin rose back to around $68,000 after a few days of going down. The move happened as markets reacted to Donald Trump’s State of the Union remarks. On Thursday, Bitcoin gained about 4% in value.
Even with this rebound, analysts say Bitcoin is still in a cautious, range-bound phase. The price has been bouncing between roughly $60,000 and $69,000. Many traders see this area as the main demand zone—where buyers are likely to step in. But researchers at Glassnode say the market is stabilizing, not yet in a real recovery. In simple terms, the market is more of a pause than a strong move up.
Key Market Conditions
Right now, Bitcoin is about 46% below its all‑time high. An all‑time high is the highest price the asset has ever reached. This deep drop is a level that has often appeared in the middle or late stages of a bear market. In a bear market, prices fall over time. Time itself can become a risk because there may be fewer buyers ready to jump in quickly. In this period, investors who bought Bitcoin at higher prices may still be losing money as the price sits well below their purchase price. This situation is described as unrealized losses.
Today, about 9.2 million Bitcoin are held at a loss. This means that roughly half of the circulating Bitcoin is underwater, or valued lower than where those coins were bought. This pattern is similar to plans seen in late-stage bear markets. But having a lot of coins in loss does not by itself guarantee the market will bounce back soon.
Even with so many unrealized losses, the behavior of buyers is not giving a strong signal. The Accumulation Trend Score, a measure some analysts use to gauge how many investors are buying and holding more over time, has stayed below 0.5 since early February. A score below 0.5 suggests there is not a strong, conviction-driven buying surge, especially among big investors. When large investors step in with real buying, it can help form a durable bottom. That type of buying has not shown up yet.
Liquidity conditions also point to fragility. The 90‑day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, a statistic that looks at profits and losses from trades that have already occurred, has fallen below the key threshold of 1.0. When this ratio stays under 1.0, it means that realized losses are dominating realized profits. In other words, more money is being lost on trades than made, which can slow down capital rotation and keep downside risk higher for longer. This environment is not friendly to a quick, clean upside move.
Market breadth is deteriorating, too. Market breadth looks at how many assets are moving and staying above their longer-term trends. Fewer assets are holding up above those long-term levels. Off-chain data, which is information about market activity that happens outside the on‑chain (blockchain) data, roughly confirms these signals. For example, in spot markets (the regular buying and selling of Bitcoin for immediate delivery), selling has become more dominant than buying. This shows active distribution rather than a simple lack of buyers who were waiting for a dip to be filled by sellers.
In the derivatives market, leverage has largely reset. Perpetual funding rates, which are payments between long and short positions in perpetual futures contracts, have moved back toward neutral. This change points to less speculative energy and little renewed bullish belief at the moment. A similar cautious tone is seen in the options market, where traders buy protections or bets on future price moves.
Additionally, dealers and big market makers are positioned in ways that suggest sharp moves could be amplified, but the overall structure favors a period of consolidation rather than a clear directional move. In other words, neither buyers nor sellers have stepped in with enough force to push Bitcoin decisively higher or lower. The current regime, according to Glassnode, is one of stabilization amid structural weakness. It means the market is stuck in a price range and waiting for clearer signals to break out of that range.
For a lasting upside recovery, Glassnode says a few things would need to flip. First, there would need to be clear spot absorption—more actual buying of Bitcoin in the regular market to balance active selling. Second, there would need to be sustained accumulation by large investors who have the power to move the market. Third, there would need to be a real shift in institutional money flowing into Bitcoin to create a structural bid that can push prices higher. Until these signals emerge, the main theme remains price action within the existing range and around key valuation anchors.
Macro and Geopolitical Risks
In the near term, big macro (economic) and liquidity factors could keep driving Bitcoin’s price within this defensive range. In a statement to CryptoPotato, Bitunix analysts explained two possible scenarios. If safe-haven flows strengthen the dollar, Bitcoin could face pressure and test the lower part of the range around the $65,000–$64,000 area. On the other hand, if capital rotates toward an anti-inflation narrative, short-term inflows could push the price toward the upper part of the range near $69,000. The main variable, said the analysts, is whether geopolitical risks will escalate materially or not.
The story here is that Bitcoin’s move depends a lot on what happens with the broader economy and world events. When investors are worried about things like inflation, growth, or wars, they often look to assets like Bitcoin differently. This can create quick shifts up or down. But the current data suggests that after the recent rise, buyers have not yet shown enough conviction to carry the price higher for a longer time.
In short, the market remains cautious. A durable recovery would require a combination of genuine buying interest, big investors stepping in with confidence, and money flowing into Bitcoin from institutions. Until those conditions appear, Bitcoin is more likely to continue trading within the current range rather than breaking out strongly to new highs.
The above view reflects the analysis published by CryptoPotato and summarized by market researchers who watch Bitcoin closely. The piece titled “Bitcoin’s Recovery Isn’t Here Yet – Here’s What Still Needs to Flip” points to the same core idea: the market has not flipped from a defensive stance to a durable uptrend yet, even after a short-term bounce.
As always with Bitcoin and other digital assets, investors should be aware that prices can move quickly. It’s important to consider both the potential for gains and the risks of losses when thinking about putting money into Bitcoin. The path to a renewed uptrend is not guaranteed and will depend on the interplay of many factors in the days and weeks ahead.
Glossary
- Bitcoin — A kind of digital money that people can use on the internet. It was created in 2009 by a person or group of people using the name Satoshi Nakamoto. It uses a public ledger called a blockchain and is secured by a method called proof of work. In simple terms, it is like money that exists only in computers. For more, see the Wikipedia page: Bitcoin.
- Bear market — A period when prices fall and stay lower for a while. It is the opposite of a bull market, where prices rise. Think of a market going down like a winter season for prices. See the Wikipedia article: Bear market.
- Derivative (finance) — A contract whose value comes from something else, like a stock, oil price, or Bitcoin itself. People use derivatives to protect themselves from risk or to speculate. Common kinds are forwards, futures, options, and swaps. More here: Derivative (finance).
- Option (finance) — A contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a specific price on or before a certain date. There are two main kinds: calls (the right to buy) and puts (the right to sell). Learn more at: Option (finance).
- Liquidity trap — A situation where money policy stops working well because interest rates are very low and people prefer keeping cash. This can make it hard for the economy to grow even when the government tries to boost it. See: Liquidity trap.
Source note: The article this rewritten piece is based on was published by CryptoPotato, under the headline about Bitcoin’s recovery and what needs to flip for a stronger uptrend.
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