First Coin

Bitcoin self-custody holders face $27.89B unrealized losses as ETFs shed $8.5B

A group of Bitcoin holders who keep their coins in private, offline storage are now sitting on large paper losses. The total unrealized loss is about $27.89 billion. This figure mirrors losses seen in the U.S. institutional market, where exposure to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to Bitcoin has fallen by about two‑thirds since late 2024.

The big point is not just about big banks or Wall Street. The data shows that the sell‑side pressure on Bitcoin is a market-wide trend. It affects long‑term supporters too—people who prefer cold storage and do not leave their coins on online platforms or in exchanges.

GugaOnChain, a researcher who studies blockchain data, looked closely at who is losing the most. He found that addresses which self‑custody between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC) and have a UTXO age of 1 to 3 months are down about 23.39%. This means those coins have lost roughly 23.39% of their value on paper. In dollar terms, the loss is about $28 billion for this group. To understand this, you should know what a UTXO is. An unspent transaction output (UTXO) is a piece of Bitcoin that has been sent to someone and has not yet been spent. It is one unit of value that can be used in a future transaction. The longer an UTXO sits unused, the longer it can help define the balance on an address.

This group is defined by its choice to keep Bitcoin in private storage devices, known as hard wallets, instead of putting coins into centralized exchanges. They are now facing losses that are in line with the big institutions that trade through CME futures and ETF products. In the U.S., ETF products tied to Bitcoin have shed about $8.5 billion in value since October, and their exposure has contracted by roughly two‑thirds from the peak in 2024. The research team believes this parallel movement shows a common source of stress for the market. In other words, the pressure is coming from the same forces, whether you are trading on a wall‑street floor or keeping your coins in a secure vault at home.

Looking at the broader environment, analysts think there is no immediate relief in sight. Three pillars of support have helped Bitcoin avoid an outright collapse. First are accumulators, or people who are buying more Bitcoin. The current estimated demand from accumulators is about 371,900 BTC. Second is retail buyers, individual investors who keep adding coins, though at a slower pace—about 6,384 BTC on average each month. Third are miners, the people who create new Bitcoin blocks by confirming transactions. Their current Mine‑Power Indicator (MPI) is −1.11. The combination of these factors has kept Bitcoin from a sudden drop, but the analyst notes this is more of a delay than a solution to the underlying market pressure.

As for the price, Bitcoin is trading a little under $67,000 at the time of writing. It is down around 1% over the last 24 hours, but slightly higher when looking at the week. The longer-term trend looks less friendly: Bitcoin is down about 27% over the past 30 days and roughly 42% over the last six months, according to CoinGlass data. The question remains: will the price bounce back above key levels, or will it move lower before any recovery?

GugaOnChain summed up the situation with a cautious note: the potential for recovery depends on how the price behaves at levels above current prices. If buyers step in at higher levels and sustain momentum, a rebound could occur. If they do not, the market could remain under pressure for longer.

One striking feature in the current period is the split between different groups of market participants. Retail demand, or the purchases made by individual investors, has cooled noticeably. On the other hand, large holders—often called whales—have been accumulating during the recent dip. This divergence adds complexity to predicting the near‑term direction of Bitcoin’s price.

CryptoQuant, a data analytics firm, reports that whale holdings have grown by about 200,000 BTC over the past month. This takes whale holdings from about 2.9 million BTC to over 3.1 million BTC. The firm notes that this scale of accumulation was last seen during the April 2025 correction, which preceded a dramatic rally that carried Bitcoin from around $76,000 to more than $126,000. This pattern suggests that while many smaller investors may be panicking, the so‑called smart money — large, well‑capitalized investors — could be preparing for a longer‑term play, anticipating future price moves rather than reacting to the momentary price drop.

The overall picture, then, is mixed and complex. There is significant stress across the market, with large unrealized losses for self‑custody holders and for ETF exposures, but some parts of the market are showing patience. The presence of steady demand from accumulators, ongoing but modest retail buying, and ongoing mining activity provides some support. Yet the declines seen over the recent months mean that any meaningful recovery will likely require favorable price action from higher levels and renewed confidence among both retail and institutional participants.

In summary, Bitcoin remains under pressure but not in immediate danger of collapsing. The network’s activity continues, and major players are adjusting to a new price reality. The coming weeks and months will reveal whether the market can shift from a period of losses and consolidation into a more sustainable uptrend. Investors should watch how price behaves when it reaches and tests higher levels, and how the balance between different groups of market participants evolves as new information comes into view.

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