Cardano’s cryptocurrency, ADA, has been having a tough time lately. At the start of February, the price dropped to a level it hasn’t seen in five years. A five-year low means the price is the lowest it’s been in the last five years. This kind of drop can worry investors and make people think the price could keep falling.
In the world of crypto, people watch for big moves from the people who own a lot of coins. When big investors buy or sell a lot, it can push the price up or down. Some traders call these big investors whales because they own so much that their actions can move the market. So, when these whales act, others may start to worry and might also decide to sell, which can push prices lower.
One well-known crypto analyst, Ali Martinez, said that Cardano whales have sold about 190 million ADA over the last week. If you translate that into U.S. dollars, it is roughly $50 million, using a price around $0.26 for one ADA. So, in the last seven days, a large group of investors sold a lot of ADA, which can increase selling pressure in the market.
Seven days ago, these big holders owned about 13.57 billion ADA. Now, they hold around 13.38 billion ADA. That means they sold about 190 million ADA. This amount is roughly 36.3% of the coins that are currently circulating in the market. Circulating supply means the number of coins that are not locked up and are available for buying and selling in the market.
Many people in the crypto world believe whales have a lot of experience and may have information about upcoming events that could change the price. Because of this, their recent selling could cause fear in the market. When fear grows, smaller investors sometimes decide to sell too, hoping to avoid losses.
From a simple money view, big sell-offs add more ADA to the open market. If there aren’t more buyers to absorb this extra supply, the price tends to go down. This is basic supply and demand: more supply with steady demand usually lowers prices.
Investors also look at a technical indicator called the Relative Strength Index, or RSI. RSI helps traders see whether an asset might be overbought or oversold based on recent price moves. It is scored from 0 to 100. If the RSI goes above 70, it may suggest the asset is overbought and could see a price correction. If it falls below 30, it may suggest the asset is oversold and could rise. Right now, ADA’s RSI is around 74, which is in the overbought range and could mean a price pullback could happen soon, though this is not a guarantee.
Inside Cardano’s large and active community, there are people who try to spot patterns and predict future moves. A few days ago on X (formerly known as Twitter), user Aman noted that ADA had fallen to a demand zone near $0.26. A demand zone is a price area where many buyers might come in to buy, which can support the price and lead to a reversal to higher levels. In the past, similar price areas have sparked strong reversals that pushed ADA up again.
Another user, Mentor, echoed this idea, saying that the last time ADA reached the current price level, it rose to around $1.40 in less than a month. This kind of claim is a forecast based on past price movements and community opinions. While not guaranteed, it helps explain why some people believe a rebound could happen.
In recent months, ADA has shown net outflows from cryptocurrency exchanges. Netflow is a term that describes the difference between coins moving into exchanges and coins moving out to other places. A negative netflow means more coins are leaving exchanges than coming in. This is often seen as a sign that investors don’t want to sell soon because coins are being moved to personal wallets (self-custody) for safekeeping. When coins are in self-custody, they are controlled by the individual owner rather than a crypto exchange, which can make quick selling harder but also reduces the chance of large, quick sell-offs on the exchange side.
All these factors—the recent selling by large holders, the high RSI level, the price reaching a key demand zone, and the netflow trends—are part of a bigger picture about Cardano’s short-term future. Traders will watch carefully to see if the price will bounce back from the current levels or continue to fall. Each factor can influence others, so even small changes in one area can lead to bigger moves in the market.
The story about ADA over the past week was summarized by CryptoPotato in an article titled “190,000,000 ADA in 1 Week: Is Cardano on the Verge of a Further Dump?” It presented the discussion about whether Cardano could see more downside in the near term because of the selling by large holders and the current market conditions.
In simple terms, Cardano is moving in a volatile space. The price is sensitive to big buyers and sellers, and it can bounce around a lot in a short period. If more buyers come in or if traders see positive catalysts for Cardano, the price could recover. If selling continues and demand stays weak, ADA might test lower prices again. Only time will tell exactly which direction it will go next, and investors should consider many factors before making any decisions.
Glossary
- Cardano (blockchain platform) — Cardano is a public decentralized blockchain platform that uses the cryptocurrency ADA to facilitate transactions, featuring a proof-of-stake consensus protocol (Ouroboros) and a layered architecture for settlement and computation.
- Relative strength index — The relative strength index (RSI) is a technical indicator used in financial markets to measure the magnitude of recent price moves and identify overbought or oversold conditions, typically calculated on a 14-day timeframe on a 0–100 scale.
- Unspent transaction output — An unspent transaction output (UTXO) is a discrete amount of cryptocurrency created by a transaction that can be spent in a future transaction; the UTXO model records ownership and controls spending via digital signatures.
- Proof of stake — Proof-of-stake (PoS) is a class of consensus mechanisms where validators are chosen to create new blocks based on the amount of cryptocurrency they hold and stake, offering a more energy-efficient alternative to proof-of-work.
- Cryptocurrency — A cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography for security and operates on a decentralized ledger, typically a blockchain, without relying on a central authority.