In late February, a post on X (the social media site formerly known as Twitter) drew a lot of attention to how Iran uses electricity to mine Bitcoin. The post claimed that Iran runs a very large mining operation that could cost about $1 billion to operate. The claim also warned that a disruption to the country’s power could wipe out this operation. This idea split people who study cryptocurrencies. Some warned that a sudden drop in mining power could briefly shake the network’s power. Others said the fears were blown out of proportion. They called it fear, uncertainty, and doubt, often shortened to FUD.
What was claimed and who spoke up?
The discussion started with an independent analyst named Shanaka Anslem Perera. He argued that Iran could mine Bitcoin at a theoretical cost of around $1,320 for each BTC. He said this cost comes from electricity that Iran heavily subsidizes, meaning the government pays part of the price to help people and businesses. He also said Iran would sell the mined Bitcoin at the current market price, which he said was near $68,000 per coin. If his numbers were right, he suggested Iran would be earning a very large gross margin — about 50 times more money than it would cost to produce each coin.
Perera claimed that Iran uses roughly 700,000 mining machines. He said these machines use about 2,000 megawatts of electricity every day. He also connected many of these mining operations to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC. The IRGC is a powerful part of Iran’s military and security system. He suggested that this Bitcoin activity could be a way for Iran to turn its energy supplies into liquid money, especially when traditional financial routes are blocked by sanctions. He argued that Bitcoin could be a workaround that lets Iran move value out of special sanctions systems and into more usable money, even when some banks and payment routes are blocked.
To back up his point, Perera linked the argument to sanctions. He said Bitcoin can be used to move money around the world when other methods are blocked. This is a general idea people discuss when they think about Bitcoin and economic sanctions.
What Chainalysis found about Iran’s crypto activity
There is also a separate report from an analytics company called Chainalysis. They published a report on Iran’s crypto activity for 2025. They found that Iran’s total activity in the crypto world was very large — more than $7.78 billion for the year. They also looked at addresses tied to networks that help the IRGC. They found that these addresses received more than $3 billion in 2025, up from a little over $2 billion in 2024. They also noted that crypto activity in Iran tended to spike during times of military or political crisis. This finding is often discussed by people who study how crypto is used in different countries and under sanctions.
Why some people say the $1,320 figure is not believable
Not everyone agrees with Perera’s $1,320-per-BTC figure. Critics challenged his math and his assumptions. One analyst, known as Dasha, called the figure “100% fake news.” She argued that Perera’s calculation relies on household electricity rates that can’t be maintained in practice because Iran experiences blackouts and electricity shortages. In short, she said the numbers don’t add up in the real world. If you cannot reliably provide electricity to that many machines, you cannot keep mining at that supposed cost.
Would a big drop in hashrate really hurt Bitcoin?
Some people dismissed the idea of a major shock to the network’s power as unlikely. A miner named ZynxBTC argued that even if Iran had 5% of the world’s mining power, and the power went offline, the Bitcoin network would keep running. This is because the network is designed to keep working even if some miners disappear. It can adjust to changes in how many machines are competing to mine new blocks.
To show this, they point to a recent real-world example in the United States. Earlier this year, a severe winter storm knocked many miners in Texas offline. Despite that, the Bitcoin network did not break. The total hashrate — the total computing power used to mine Bitcoin — dropped. It fell from about 1.133 zetta-hash per second (ZH/s) to 690 exa-hash per second (EH/s) in a matter of days. This demonstrates that the network can handle some big outages and still keep producing new blocks over time. The network’s coin production kept going, and users still could send and receive Bitcoin transactions.
Perera’s counter-argument: a serious grid disruption could be different
Perera did not back away easily. He argued that a power grid failure in Iran is different from a voluntary shutdown. He said that if tensions in the Middle East lead to a military strike, a prolonged air campaign could seriously disrupt electricity generation. He estimated that such an attack could cut Iran’s electricity supply by about 30% to 50% for a period of time.
Perera stressed that mining machines need a continuous and stable power supply. Even short outages can damage or destroy active mining rigs. He suggested that if Iran’s power grid were to fail for several days or longer, Iran’s share of the world’s mining power could collapse from a small percentage (around 2% to 5% of global hashrate) to near zero within days. If the network saw such a drop, it would trigger a rapid change called a “difficulty adjustment.” This adjustment makes it harder to mine new blocks for a short time and can slow down block production and increase transaction fees. Perera argued that this would be a big, but temporary, disruption for Bitcoin’s users and markets.
Some news outlets have reported that the United States and Israel have launched strikes on Iran in this context, which would lend support to the possibility of power disruption. It is important to note that such claims involve ongoing international actions and complex geopolitics. Different sources may give different views on what has happened and what it could mean for Bitcoin and energy use in Iran.
Would a shutdown of Iranian mining cause lasting damage?
Other researchers and observers argue that Bitcoin’s network is very resilient. They point to historical events when large amounts of mining power left a country. For example, in 2021, China cracked down on Bitcoin mining and many miners left the country. Yet, after relocating, miners soon found new places to operate, and the global network adjusted. The network uses a process called a hash rate to measure how much computing power is being used. When power changes in one region, miners move to other places. In that sense, a big drop in one country could be mitigated by increases elsewhere. This makes the system able to recover from large, temporary disruptions.
What does all this mean for ordinary people and markets?
For people who trade or use Bitcoin, a sudden drop in mining power could affect how quickly new blocks are found or how fast transactions are confirmed. A short period with higher transaction fees can happen if the network slows down. But many observers think these effects would be temporary. The network has shown it can adjust when big changes happen in mining power. The Bitcoin network does not rely on any single country to keep working. It is a global system with miners all around the world.
Summary: two big ideas from these debates
- One camp says Iran might be running a very large and inexpensive mining operation because it uses subsidized electricity. If true, this could give Iran a strong position in Bitcoin mining and might help it move value around in ways that avoid traditional financial channels blocked by sanctions.
- The other camp says the math behind the $1,320-per-BTC estimate is not solid. They argue that real-world power shortages, blackouts, and the need for a steady electricity supply would make such a low cost unlikely. They also say Bitcoin’s network is very resilient and can adjust to losses of mining power, though there could be short-term effects on fees and confirmation times.
Why this matters beyond Bitcoin
Some people worry about how crypto networks interact with politics and energy. If large mining operations are linked to military or security groups, this can raise questions about energy use, national strategy, and how money moves across borders. Others see Bitcoin as a possible way to keep value moving when traditional banking and payment systems face sanctions or other restrictions. This debate is ongoing and involves many factors, including technology, economics, law, and international relations.
Notes on terms you might see in this discussion
Below are simple explanations for a few key terms. Each term is also linked to a longer explanation on Wikipedia if you want to read more. This helps people who are new to the topic understand what is being talked about.
Bitcoin mining: Bitcoin mining is the process by which new bitcoins are created and transactions are verified in the Bitcoin network using a proof-of-work system. Miners compete to solve a cryptographic puzzle to produce a valid block, which is added to the blockchain approximately every 10 minutes; mining often involves large energy use and can involve mining pools.
Hash rate: Hash rate is the measure of computational power used to mine cryptocurrencies, representing the number of hash computations performed per second. A higher hash rate means more attempts to find valid blocks and greater network security, with units such as H/s, TH/s, or PH/s.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a part of Iran’s armed forces. It helps protect the system that runs the country and has a lot of influence in politics and the economy. Some countries consider it a terrorist organization.
SWIFT: SWIFT is a network that helps banks around the world send money to each other for international payments. It helps with cross-border money transfers.
Chainalysis: Chainalysis is a company that studies cryptocurrency transactions to help banks and law enforcement understand where money comes from and goes to in the crypto world.
These explanations help readers understand the background as the discussion continues about Iran’s mining and its possible effects on the Bitcoin network and on markets that trade Bitcoin.
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