Ripple’s XRP has recently been stuck below a key price level for 70 days. This level, called the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), is important. In the past, when XRP spent time below this level, it later made big price jumps. Analysts think this pattern might repeat again soon.
What is the 50-Week SMA?
The 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) is a tool that analysts use to track the average price of an asset, like XRP, over the past 50 weeks. This helps them see price trends more clearly and predict where the price might go next. You can learn more about SMA here.
Historical Patterns of XRP Price Changes
A crypto analyst named Steph Is Crypto has studied how XRP behaved in the past when it was below the 50-week SMA. They found a repeating pattern:
- In 2017, XRP stayed below the 50-week SMA for 70 days, then its price jumped by more than 200%.
- In 2021, a similar situation happened. After 49 days below the SMA, the price grew by 70%.
- In 2024, XRP stayed below the SMA for 84 days, and the price exploded, rising over 850%.
Right now, XRP is in the same 70-day period under the SMA, but a breakout (a sudden price increase) has not been confirmed yet. Past patterns show that after long periods of low activity, XRP often makes big upward moves. Analysts think the current situation could lead to a similar rise. As Steph Is Crypto commented, “Nothing about this looks exciting. And that’s usually what XRP looks like right before it moves.”
A Pattern from the Past Might Be Forming Again
Looking at XRP’s chart for 2025, it seems to be following a pattern seen in earlier years like 2016 and 2024. In those years, the price went through a three-phase correction, known as an A-B-C wave. For 120-150 days, the price moved sideways or slightly down before eventually breaking out and moving up sharply.
Currently, XRP’s price has been moving in a slow and steady way, with not much trading activity (low volume). This is similar to what happened in the past right before the price jumped up. Analysts are watching closely to see if this pattern will lead to another breakout.
What is a Fractal Model?
Another crypto analyst called Egrag Crypto uses something called a fractal model to study XRP’s price movements. A fractal is a repeating pattern that can help predict future behavior. It’s like recognizing how small waves in the ocean might tell you when a bigger wave is coming. You can learn more about fractals here.
According to Egrag Crypto, XRP’s behavior is currently matching one of these fractal patterns with around 82% accuracy. Based on this model, XRP could potentially reach price levels like $3.20, $8.00, $15–16, or even $20–27 in the future. But, if the price drops below $1.60, the pattern would weaken, and if it falls under $1.30, the prediction would be invalidated. This fractal model isn’t a sure prediction—it’s more like a guide based on past price behavior.
They also suggested that any major price moves for XRP could happen sometime between June and October 2026, according to the fractal model.
Current XRP Price and Risks
Right now, XRP is priced at $1.86. However, it has dropped 2% in the last 24 hours and is down about 1% over the past week.
Another analyst, CryptoWZRD, explained that XRP needs to stay above $1.98 to maintain a positive trend. If it falls below that level, the price could continue dropping. There’s also significant resistance (a point where the price struggles to rise) around $2.75.
On the risk side, analyst Ali Martinez warned that if XRP doesn’t hold key price levels, its value could drop by over 55%, potentially falling to $0.80. He highlighted technical signs that suggest XRP is at risk of a downward correction if it’s repeatedly rejected at certain price points.
XRP Trading on Exchanges
Another important factor to watch is the amount of XRP being sent to centralized exchanges. A centralized exchange is a platform where people can buy, sell, and trade cryptocurrencies, like Binance. Read more about these platforms here.
Recently, more XRP has been moving to exchanges. When this happens, it often means that traders are preparing to sell their coins. If selling increases, this could push the price lower in the short term.
For now, investors and analysts are waiting to see if XRP will follow its past patterns and deliver another massive breakout.