Solana’s native cryptocurrency, SOL, has fallen a lot lately. In the last month, its value dropped by about 40 percent. That is a big decline in a short time. Some market watchers think the fall could continue. They warn that SOL might dip below $10 in the near future. If that happens, many people who own SOL could lose a large part of their investment.
What caused this drop? The whole cryptocurrency market has been weak recently. News about tariffs and political tensions can move investors to be more cautious. This kind of news can increase selling pressure in risky markets like crypto. SOL has also faced its own challenges as traders reassess risk and try to price in new information.
Looking at recent price moves shows how quickly things can change. SOL briefly dropped to around $77, then moved back above $80. That means a roughly 6% loss for the day. Price swings like this are common in the crypto world, where values can move a lot in short periods.
What are some analysts saying? A well-known market analyst on the social media platform X, Ali Martinez, looked at SOL’s charts closely. He said that a tool called the “super trend indicator” has given a sell signal on the monthly price chart. A sell signal is a warning that the price could go down. Martinez noted that the last time this exact pattern appeared was in January 2022. At that time, SOL fell by about 95%. If a similar drop happened now, SOL could fall to around $4—a huge decline from current levels.
Martinez also warned traders to watch a price zone around $76, known as a support level. A support level is a price where the market tends to stop falling and may begin to rise again. If SOL breaks below $76, there could be more selling and the price might fall further to around $53, then to $35, and possibly to $23. In other words, breaking that support could open the door to more declines, according to his view.
A different voice in the analysis community, Sjuul from AltCryptoGems, has also shared bearish views. He argued that SOL looks “compromised on the high time frame” and is basically trading in a big no man’s land—neither clearly rising nor falling. He said that as long as the price stays below the $110 resistance—the price level where selling pressure tends to be stronger—SOL faces the risk of a deeper retracement, potentially down to around $20.
Is there any chance of a short-term bounce? Some data suggests there could be a bounce in the near term. A popular market tool is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This indicator measures how fast and how much prices have moved recently, helping traders gauge momentum. The RSI is scored from 0 to 100. When the RSI falls below 30, it is often read as “oversold,” which can mean the price might rebound as buyers step in. In SOL’s case, the weekly RSI has moved well below this 30 level, a sign that a temporary rebound could be possible if buyers return. On X, a trader named Mags noted that SOL’s weekly RSI reached a level similar to December 2022, when SOL was around $8. After that period, SOL experienced a strong rally. He asked whether history might repeat itself and lead to a rebound again.
Another factor traders watch is exchange netflow. Netflow is the difference between money moving into exchanges (inflows) and money moving out of exchanges (outflows). If more money flows into exchanges, it can be a sign that people are preparing to sell. Toward the end of 2025 and into early 2026, inflows exceeded outflows, which suggested more people were moving funds from their own wallets to centralized exchanges. This has been considered a bearish signal because it can precede selling pressure in the market. In recent weeks, the trend has started to reverse, with outflows surpassing inflows. This means more SOL is being withdrawn from exchanges and moved back to personal wallets or other storage options, which some analysts consider a sign of reduced selling pressure—though it does not guarantee a price move in the short term.
In summary, SOL has fallen sharply and some analysts warn of more declines if key support levels fail and if negative patterns repeat. Others point to indicators that suggest a possible short-term bounce, at least before any larger move. The crypto market remains risky and fluid, with prices highly sensitive to news, market sentiment, and investors’ decisions on where to move their funds. If you own SOL or are thinking about buying, you should be aware that no one can predict the future with certainty. It can help to learn how traders analyze price data and to only invest money you can afford to lose.
Definitions
- Solana (blockchain platform) — Solana is a public blockchain platform that uses a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism and provides smart contract functionality. Its native cryptocurrency is SOL. Wikipedia definition.
- Relative Strength Index — The relative strength index (RSI) is a technical indicator used in the analysis of financial markets to chart the current and historical strength or weakness of a stock or market based on the closing prices of a recent trading period. Wikipedia definition.
- Market trend — A market trend is the perceived tendency of the financial markets to move in a particular direction over time, including bull and bear markets. Wikipedia definition.
- Support and resistance — In stock market technical analysis, support and resistance are predetermined levels of the price at which it is thought that the price will stop and reverse. Wikipedia definition.
- Technical analysis — Technical analysis is an analysis methodology for analysing and forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price. Wikipedia definition.
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