Bitcoin, the first decentralized digital currency (learn more about Bitcoin), is struggling to gain more value right now. There is more selling than buying happening in the market, which is keeping the price low. This has left many people asking, “Why is Bitcoin not pumping?”
PlanB, an analyst who created a popular model for predicting Bitcoin prices called the Stock-to-Flow model (learn more about this model), shared his thoughts on this issue. He explained that about 50% of the selling is done by long-time Bitcoin owners (“OGs”) who were shaken by the market crash in 2021. These people are cautious and not buying Bitcoin as much as before. Another group of sellers includes technical investors who analyze the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (learn more about RSI) or follow the Bitcoin market cycles. These cycles often have a bear market (a time when prices fall) two years after a key event called the “halving” (learn more about bear markets).
However, the other 50% of people in the market are actively buying Bitcoin. These buyers see long-term value in Bitcoin’s fundamentals, or they represent big financial institutions and traditional finance companies (also called TradFi). PlanB calls this a “battle” between buyers and sellers and says the markets will improve once the sellers “run out of ammo,” or stop selling so much.
The Bears Are Winning for Now
Right now, investors who are pessimistic about Bitcoin, often called “bears,” are in control of the market. Bitcoin’s price has dropped about 31% from its highest point ever, but many experts say this kind of decline is not unusual. Similar market drops have happened in the past during what’s called the Bitcoin market cycle.
Joe Consorti, a crypto expert, says Bitcoin’s price “could go lower from here,” but he doesn’t think that’s the most likely outcome. He pointed out that Bitcoin saw big price crashes, like a 44% drop in 2018 and a 54% drop in 2022, when the market was in a similar situation. If we are truly in a bear market, where prices keep falling, “things can get much worse,” Joe said.
Still, he added another possibility: Bitcoin’s price might pause at its current level and slowly form a “bottom.” A “bottom” is a level where prices stop going down and start stabilizing before increasing again. This process, however, takes time. Joe mentioned this happened with Bitcoin in both September 2024 and April 2025.
Joe tweeted: “Bitcoin can definitely go lower from here, but it’s not my base case. When BTC was this oversold in late 2018 on the weekly timeframe, it dumped another 44% — in 2022, it dumped another 54%. If a proper bear market is underway, things can get much worse.”
Could Bitcoin Drop to $10,000?
Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has a very bearish view. He believes Bitcoin could fall back to around $10,000. This would be a significant drop from its current value. He also said that if Bitcoin’s price fell below $15,000, this could signal a major problem for not just Bitcoin, but for all cryptocurrencies. Such a scenario would show a complete loss of confidence in crypto markets.
Adding to the concern is the fact that Bitcoin has been in its longest-ever period of “extreme fear.” This is measured by something called the Fear & Greed Index, which tracks whether people are feeling greedy (willing to take investment risks) or fearful (avoiding risks) in the market. Right now, extreme fear has lasted longer than ever before, making many investors nervous.
What’s Happening with Bitcoin’s Price?
Recently, Bitcoin showed a small recovery in its price. After dropping as low as $85,000 on Monday, its value went up slightly to reach around $88,000 on Tuesday. However, the increase didn’t last long because there weren’t enough buyers to support the higher price. By Wednesday morning (in the Asian trading session), Bitcoin’s price fell again to about $87,500.
If we look at the bigger picture, Bitcoin’s price has generally stayed in the same range for about a month. This has happened after large declines during October and November. Some experts think this could be a signal that Bitcoin’s price has found a “bottom.” Others believe it might just be clinging to its current level before falling further.
Bitcoin investors and market analysts will keep a close eye on these trends and signals to understand whether the price will go up or down in the near future.